Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc421931cda8274a8a7f692cd1cc996ae0276b366432bf966f1da3b31ab462eb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 59c | 4,733$2,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,795.39 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 40c | 4,026$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,433.9 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 57c | 3,182$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.49 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 43c | 1,760$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.6 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed Yes | 42c | 1,435$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…4907backed Yes | 40c | 1,337$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…08abbacked No | 63c | 1,102$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.37 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 42c | 1,020$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.59 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 41c | 650$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 57c | 600$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes | 37c | 600$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.97 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Yes | 39c | 580$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes | 35c | 576.86$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.39 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 40c | 533.04$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.01 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 78c | 526$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.43 | 20 | 100%20 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 59c | 507.94$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.57 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 58c | 475.95$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.27 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 40c | 456$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 58c | 377.7$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.19 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 41c | 350$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 334.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.94 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 66c | 279$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.23 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 69c | 266.23$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 42c | 200.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 58c | 170$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…a4dbbacked Yes | 39c | 163$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 39c | 145.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 59c | 140$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 61c | 133.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…649dbacked Yes | 39c | 131.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.88 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Yes | 39c | 126.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 113.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 41c | 112.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Yes | 42c | 112$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 110$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 15c | 104.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Yes | 39c | 104$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 59c | 95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 93.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 91.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Yes | 39c | 84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 39c | 83.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…d227backed Yes | 39c | 83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked No | 61c | 81.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 80.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaee0…2fc9backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…7b9dbacked Yes | 39c | 78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1536…7f40backed Yes | 42c | 76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 41c | 72.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 42c | 70.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Yes | 42c | 67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…6e4fbacked Yes | 38c | 63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 59.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…4ab1backed Yes | 42c | 58.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…1dfbbacked Yes | 42c | 54.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 54.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 56c | 54.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12c…fae5backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed No | 67c | 49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…be55backed Yes | 39c | 45.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 46c | 44.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 39c | 40.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 41c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…7ac1backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 31.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 70c | 25.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 52c | 24.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…c095backed No | 58c | 23.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 52c | 19.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in April?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in April?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in April?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% in April?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 1.0% in April?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by ≥1.1% in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.