Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42e32bd8f228f746250da57ea47dfc9b1532116e96383f20eb55bae9eb3df424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed No | 71c | 3,620$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.21 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 34c | 3,039$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.04 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…08abbacked Yes | 27c | 2,522$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.73 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 67c | 1,929$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.66 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…4907backed Yes | 34c | 1,295$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 67c | 1,219$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.01 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 65c | 1,087$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.73 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…93debacked Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Yes | 33c | 980.55$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 28c | 886.87$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.64 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 34c | 789.13$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.41 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 34c | 699.99$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 30c | 424.46$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 70c | 421.34$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +219.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 68c | 294.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 34c | 291$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 286$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 270$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 71c | 266.23$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed Yes | 34c | 265.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 61c | 258.81$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…ee1ebacked No | 62c | 161.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 69c | 153.57$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 66c | 151$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 67c | 123.54$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 72c | 118.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 36c | 109.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…d871backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 35c | 93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 91.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 34c | 85.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…6e4fbacked Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 35c | 81.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 33c | 73.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf64…e473backed Yes | 33c | 70.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 33c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 32c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…0ec9backed No | 62c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 58.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…96f4backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12c…fae5backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…d5afbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…e57abacked Yes | 34c | 31.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 30.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 64c | 27.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 64c | 24.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cc…2506backed No | 63c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in April?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in April?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in April?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% in April?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 1.0% in April?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by ≥1.1% in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.