Commodities · resolved market
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x057ba0dee9374d3ebc290eb59d469070b06b1923cd24a153b2e0f8add545b703
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 65c | 2,175$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.05 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 60c | 1,723$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.95 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1800…a565backed No | 66c | 1,239$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfa…79e7backed Yes | 35c | 1,087$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.07 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 51c | 962.74$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.3 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…db1ebacked Yes | 42c | 901.14$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.43 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 38c | 779.64$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.6 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 65c | 698.66$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.67 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 63c | 695$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 689.01$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.04 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Yes | 68c | 596.37$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.64 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 34c | 590.9$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.38 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…5ad9backed Yes | 52c | 527.01$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 30cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 62c | 508.05$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.02 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…258dbacked Yes | 70c | 471.53$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 64c | 465.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…62debacked Yes | 32c | 462.22$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a6…2190backed Yes | 45c | 448.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.76 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…2c87backed Yes | 47c | 424.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Yes | 67c | 412.74$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 58c | 395.28$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.38 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…5531backed Yes | 49c | 388.23$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…3774backed Yes | 47c | 385.59$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…751cbacked Yes | 74c | 379.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…b479backed Yes | 34c | 342.73$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…393dbacked No | 27c | 341.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 54c | 313.33$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.33 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 7c | 273.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb69…c1ccbacked Yes | 74c | 269.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 39c | 256.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 30c | 254.91$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.44 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes | 43c | 249.85$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 57c | 222.7$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…9240backed No | 57c | 208.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…4c4cbacked Yes | 74c | 203.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…7b0bbacked Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…5ba3backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…90a2backed No | 37c | 191.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…00aabacked Yes | 43c | 174.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked No | 59c | 170.01$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 45c | 168.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.11 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4068backed Yes | 54c | 165$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 35c | 156.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…384bbacked Yes | 23c | 154.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 47c | 153.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa67…19e1backed Yes | 65c | 152.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 64c | 152$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 14c | 152$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…7f45backed Yes | 24c | 140.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe291…9806backed Yes | 72c | 139.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 69c | 133.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 133.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…746dbacked Yes | 63c | 127.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 127.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…231ebacked Yes | 40c | 124.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 34c | 122$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 58c | 119.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…dcd6backed No | 67c | 119.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 66c | 117.78$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 52c | 113.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 109.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb9…dd12backed No | 26c | 109.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…299abacked Yes | 11c | 108$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16eb…c7c7backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…7adabacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…88babacked Yes | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…d561backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…8033backed Yes | 72c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe494…96d6backed No | 41c | 85.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 83.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…a707backed Yes | 68c | 81.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625b…3a3ebacked Yes | 67c | 80.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 19c | 80.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x159a…7d5fbacked No | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467f…73d4backed Yes | 28c | 79.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +251.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 35c | 76.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed Yes | 72c | 75.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 43c | 74.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…d842backed No | 43c | 71.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed Yes | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 47c | 68.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 62.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 33c | 60.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd778…18d3backed Yes | 63c | 56.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…02dabacked Yes | 76c | 55.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1724…c626backed Yes | 55c | 54.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdb…3e20backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 48.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 75c | 47.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?this page
- Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.