Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa980c83777851bf22a3bd4eeee864d11ce7783096a22ce4af56ff9bf2e1d2cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 8c | 10,748$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.09 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…5531backed Yes | 10c | 2,319$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,166$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.33 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 3c | 2,074$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 6c | 1,616$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,504$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,116$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 11c | 985.01$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 926.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.21 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…62debacked Yes | 13c | 899.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 790.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 2c | 773.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 82 | 4.9%4 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…258dbacked Yes | 13c | 751.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 12c | 692.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfa…79e7backed Yes | 12c | 637.51$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 9c | 561.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f8…384ebacked Yes | 7c | 451.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 9c | 450$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 400.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 361.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked Yes | 10c | 345.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 344$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…263bbacked Yes | 9c | 341.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 13c | 304.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8027backed Yes | 6c | 298.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…ee0bbacked Yes | 7c | 293.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…bddebacked Yes | 12c | 285.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb69…c1ccbacked Yes | 12c | 242.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 5c | 230.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…7f45backed Yes | 14c | 217.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…299abacked Yes | 11c | 203.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 11c | 201.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 10c | 199.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 7c | 184.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 170.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4412…f131backed Yes | 6c | 169.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4068backed Yes | 11c | 165$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3786…439abacked Yes | 9c | 162.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…0566backed Yes | 8c | 152.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 13c | 135.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…1ddcbacked Yes | 9c | 124.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…93eebacked Yes | 13c | 113.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 10c | 112.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66af…6fe0backed Yes | 13c | 93.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?this page
- Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Yes won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.