Commodities · resolved market
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe26cb4271d859584f3acc2c8f8ea9ae872f6845d89b3b1777ab100918f08906
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 19c | 3,602$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.23 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…13debacked Yes | 17c | 3,020$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdb…83d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,980$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe291…9806backed Yes | 5c | 1,923$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 59c | 641$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.81 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 30c | 573.71$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.39 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 2c | 490.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 59c | 387.66$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.66 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 41c | 319.32$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.92 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 13c | 296.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 3c | 291.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 13c | 281.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 46c | 212.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.01 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a66…8c0cbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…bddebacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 170.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 169$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…384bbacked Yes | 40c | 156.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 9c | 140.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 124.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 95.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 79c | 93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…a3acbacked Yes | 23c | 76.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64cb…f172backed Yes | 40c | 58.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…90a2backed Yes | 40c | 49.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c93…5aedbacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 76c | 43.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…7228backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…c61fbacked Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed No | 77c | 32.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…06a2backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 80c | 23.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…299abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…f433backed No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?this page
- Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Yes won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.