Commodities · resolved market
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x322276af6e480c4ae02f6970303d13e14c67f4e2e1d8c580c5f6d9787b76875d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf72c…2c87backed Yes | 11c | 4,546$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked Yes | 5c | 2,492$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed Yes | 13c | 2,303$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f8…384ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,129$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 17c | 720.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.04 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…9240backed Yes | 9c | 712.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 5c | 596.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 3c | 519.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 11c | 410.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb9…c1f3backed Yes | 14c | 401.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 7c | 324.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 6c | 248.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 7c | 231.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…d7a0backed Yes | 18c | 198.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 10c | 190$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 182.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4068backed Yes | 11c | 165$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcabc…8f57backed Yes | 30c | 164.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 59c | 152.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 143.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 15c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?this page
- Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Yes won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.