Commodities · resolved market
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x349d195e9f83aea1ad3c89f3ecc69c3f64061addae2b74f40d3e66207fc8563f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bef…7fe5backed Yes | 51c | 4,398$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…2c87backed Yes | 24c | 3,387$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked Yes | 19c | 3,244$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.92 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 46c | 3,083$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.78 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 70c | 1,646$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.76 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…9240backed Yes | 29c | 1,353$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed Yes | 14c | 1,230$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.19 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f8…384ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,205$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed Yes | 80c | 1,125$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31c2…f1d3backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 9c | 999.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 20c | 951.33$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.57 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 24c | 823.62$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.93 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfa…79e7backed Yes | 55c | 766.79$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 12c | 762.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 16c | 534.73$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.96 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 68c | 432$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.11 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +348.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 17c | 367.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…b479backed Yes | 21c | 341.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…08fdbacked Yes | 26c | 325.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 34c | 324.57$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 15c | 288.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4d69backed Yes | 11c | 270$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…3774backed Yes | 19c | 268.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…eafebacked Yes | 24c | 258.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa069…718dbacked No | 56c | 209.78$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…7b0bbacked Yes | 66c | 205$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 14c | 172.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 169.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 166.49$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4068backed Yes | 16c | 165$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 61c | 163.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…384bbacked Yes | 32c | 161.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 25c | 159.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 14c | 144.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 140.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 139.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…af4ebacked Yes | 15c | 136.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb9…c1f3backed Yes | 17c | 134.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 130.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…3253backed Yes | 66c | 125.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 119.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 15c | 117.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 116.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 107.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…5e3bbacked Yes | 37c | 96.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed Yes | 16c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 12c | 90.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…ac16backed Yes | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 17c | 86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 17c | 68.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…299abacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 62c | 55.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…2ec4backed Yes | 38c | 52.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 29c | 49.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 25c | 47.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63df…0afabacked Yes | 43c | 46.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +307%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1724…c626backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 66c | 40.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 77c | 39.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 41c | 39.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…751cbacked Yes | 72c | 37.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…819fbacked No | 68c | 36.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…746dbacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa67…19e1backed Yes | 70c | 31.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…6580backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 47c | 29.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 73c | 29.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8027backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…2c24backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4412…f131backed No | 70c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?this page
- Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Yes won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.