Weather · resolved market
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7ae03b44606c41a1abaa19b29b79c11105b4e99bf310b85929527d582db3e4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1af5…89babacked No | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed Yes | 18c | 1,521$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.12 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 1,238$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 18c | 1,035$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed Yes | 64c | 1,019$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.78 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…3f8dbacked Yes | 56c | 894.26$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 66c | 891$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked Yes | 34c | 886$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed Yes | 34c | 869$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 66c | 864$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 60c | 817.15$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.51 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed No | 28c | 696.67$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.23 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80d…1929backed No | 72c | 601.89$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 33c | 598$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.66 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 67c | 598$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.66 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed No | 4c | 509.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 17c | 419$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 414.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 17c | 399$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.17 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 380$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.77 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 4c | 345.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 341.35$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…f1febacked Yes | 78c | 320$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 55c | 282.15$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.98 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed No | 30c | 281.66$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…3e93backed Yes | 78c | 272.33$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…9eaabacked Yes | 77c | 257.45$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…b327backed Yes | 77c | 253.13$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 58c | 250.68$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Yes | 61c | 229$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 222.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 56c | 218.41$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.03 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 54c | 201.3$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.97 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…c4aebacked Yes | 72c | 196.54$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b5…f944backed Yes | 67c | 190.83$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e44…9847backed Yes | 66c | 181.9$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…e28fbacked No | 47c | 168.71$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 43c | 145.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…6afabacked No | 40c | 139.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 139.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ca28backed No | 78c | 128.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…699dbacked No | 39c | 127.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 44c | 125.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd230…02dbbacked Yes | 40c | 124.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 51c | 122.41$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…a510backed No | 42c | 118.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ed…8f55backed Yes | 57c | 117.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6765…6f90backed Yes | 55c | 105.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…51fabacked Yes | 57c | 105.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…64babacked Yes | 64c | 101.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…e98bbacked Yes | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…c4cbbacked No | 52c | 89.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 52c | 88.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 76c | 84.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8e…37f5backed No | 47c | 84.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…70d9backed Yes | 77c | 84.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3981…0559backed Yes | 69c | 83.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 12c | 83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 67c | 76.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 54c | 72.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…e454backed No | 73c | 70.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9295…6ff9backed Yes | 67c | 69.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 72c | 69.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 54c | 67.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…b468backed Yes | 56c | 64.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 38c | 59.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbab1…57eabacked No | 35c | 57.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf87…4bc5backed Yes | 36c | 56.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 40c | 55.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed Yes | 41c | 54.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9060…790bbacked No | 24c | 54.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 59c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…ce7ebacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 41c | 41.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b9e2backed Yes | 67c | 40.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 77c | 39.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bd…3c3ebacked Yes | 68c | 36.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0636…8e02backed No | 71c | 34.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…7d32backed No | 58c | 34.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…3f15backed Yes | 51c | 31.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9262…3db8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bd…6545backed Yes | 49c | 30.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9c…7e2fbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 45c | 28.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 26.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699e…3415backed No | 73c | 25.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0884…6ab8backed Yes | 63c | 22.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 52c | 22.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?this page
- Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.