Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce79a5202b1cc58540a803e15080b75723ac5de099e41995fc8dce72a5d587c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 13c | 701.26$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5e22backed Yes | 43c | 635.47$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed Yes | 14c | 564.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9060…790bbacked Yes | 29c | 496.77$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.63 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 443.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 18c | 380$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…3a21backed Yes | 18c | 351.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 3c | 341.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 16c | 321.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 12c | 302.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…1252backed Yes | 24c | 290.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 67c | 188.76$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed Yes | 24c | 169.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 166.51$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…3f8dbacked Yes | 16c | 164.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 17c | 149.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd230…02dbbacked Yes | 27c | 147.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 18c | 147.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 22c | 122.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 109.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbab1…57eabacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 73c | 98.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 71c | 89.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed Yes | 36c | 80.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…e179backed Yes | 22c | 78.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 79c | 66.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…ebfdbacked Yes | 25c | 65.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 61.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…699dbacked No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 78c | 47.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 32c | 46.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked No | 71c | 42.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…e083backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed Yes | 39c | 37.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed No | 72c | 27.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…64babacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 71c | 24.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 74c | 20.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 69c | 18.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8df…5b04backed No | 77c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?this page
- Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?No won
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.