TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Commodities · resolved market

Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,514
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,514 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x842b…b366backed Yes30c18,130$5,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,419.697930.4%24 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked No68c4,104$2,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.182646.2%12 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+45.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No77c2,215$1,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.915724.6%14 W · 43 L-8.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-36.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6b5c…c056backed Yes10c1,845$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.663951.3%20 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+51.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x778d…5593backed Yes26c1,525$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.58728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+10.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes30c1,467$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.1221228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes14c1,410$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.536334.4%125 W · 238 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes15c1,111$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.471,0449.2%96 W · 948 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb8c…7b6bbacked Yes9c1,096$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes25c1,077$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.9912538.4%48 W · 77 L+11.5wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9634…aae2backed Yes30c1,002$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.581154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes25c858.2$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.531239.4%123 W · 189 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf51…5c87backed Yes9c745$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.12812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes8c744.84$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.647935.4%28 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c743.23$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.885125.5%13 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes10c734.29$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3826413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No72c676.03$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.52744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes13c674.95$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.215429.6%16 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No77c629.11$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.0710242.2%43 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes28c599.81$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.612250%11 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33de…a7c6backed Yes26c588.8$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.73742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes8c565.43$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.525715.8%9 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick19cpaid+3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Yes32c548.58$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.5731738.8%123 W · 194 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ded…fbcdbacked Yes26c514.55$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.881844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21a3…9e97backed Yes27c506.16$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.472420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes14c500$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5110%0 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed Yes30c500$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1483857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes10c430.83$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.223119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No76c419.1$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.987532%24 W · 51 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes11c408.27$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.277439.2%29 W · 45 L+12.3wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+131.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No60c403$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.95771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.62810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebb…525fbacked No75c397.87$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.471040%4 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes9c390.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.372920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick25cpaid+26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe222…b4cbbacked Yes16c378.17$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.444332.6%14 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xff4e…0542backed Yes8c367.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a5…27cfbacked Yes36c350.8$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes32c350$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.95922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+27.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes33c339.44$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.994134.1%14 W · 27 L+6.9wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+46.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes30c300.95$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5227521.8%60 W · 215 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No73c300.81$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.611154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes27c296.21$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.978353%44 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20e5…1768backed Yes14c295.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-85.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes9c293.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.53956.3%6 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes17c292.27$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.462250%11 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes15c285.35$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5314949.7%74 W · 75 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No74c272$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.542744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed Yes28c266.67$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510743%46 W · 61 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3764…c5ebbacked No74c259.31$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8929835.9%107 W · 191 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked Yes13c250$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.141233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes29c241.32$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.59616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid+27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes5c234.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.922725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes29c227.58$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.931450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes19c226.09$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.66719.4%13 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes11c220$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.723718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes14c210.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2524325.9%63 W · 180 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes20c205$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.011844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+12.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6364…8316backed Yes25c189.29$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.426150.8%31 W · 30 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes29c188.15$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0919041.1%78 W · 112 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed Yes11c181.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.811711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6906…d8b8backed Yes8c181.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes27c180.59$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.815223.1%12 W · 40 L-10.1wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-55%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc79f…e3febacked Yes11c174.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.082010%2 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-87.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c0…38acbacked Yes11c161.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-92.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes10c159.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.612114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes11c151.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+87.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes30c151.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.452850%14 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes13c138.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.034922.4%11 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x077a…ec51backed Yes13c128.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.29714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+35.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x39fd…849ebacked Yes11c124.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ab…c267backed Yes29c124$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked Yes12c115.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.311533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed Yes12c114.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.211631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+80.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No78c113.74$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.495731.6%18 W · 39 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes18c111.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes18c108.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5620924.4%51 W · 158 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ebd…1c5dbacked Yes15c106$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes16c100.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7723323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d50…0858backed Yes16c88.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No71c84.82$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7316376.7%125 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1e…f060backed Yes31c81.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick36cpaid-79%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes19c81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.533414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-57.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No69c80$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.466541.5%27 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6ba…b46dbacked No64c75.92$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.391353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes21c75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.731625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d3…ef7abacked Yes29c73.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.361758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No71c69.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.423718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes27c68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.362540%10 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed No78c67.6$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.166848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x787d…cba8backed Yes23c66.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55a1…3e82backed Yes30c64.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6140%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d5e…2fe2backed Yes26c60.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f2…e77abacked No70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.893860.5%23 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick70cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.166653%35 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x607d…d2f4backed Yes42c58.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+20.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf49f…2661backed Yes26c58.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f90…e17fbacked Yes30c57.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.051216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc76…5f55backed Yes31c57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+102.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes26c55.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4530718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.