Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf88e78e59e5d854aeb115c92516972420d25815540d8b1418f03db92f0b3a5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 4,014$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 3,259$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe222…b4cbbacked Yes | 18c | 3,166$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.64 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 12c | 2,014$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.11 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…a044backed Yes | 18c | 1,916$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 11c | 1,305$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.92 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 14c | 1,250$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.18 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 997.07$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f54…adfebacked Yes | 10c | 884.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 763.83$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 11c | 745$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 12c | 565.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 15c | 410.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -10.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1a18…6ffabacked Yes | 13c | 382.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 4c | 320.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes | 5c | 288.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Yes | 8c | 277.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes | 9c | 274.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…c3dbbacked Yes | 11c | 261.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 12c | 259.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 17c | 252.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked Yes | 8c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 12c | 235.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 7c | 226.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 16c | 220$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb601…2a11backed Yes | 12c | 216.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 8c | 208.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 207.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8c…e19ebacked Yes | 12c | 206.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 5c | 205$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 10c | 161.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…5319backed Yes | 10c | 151.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8aa2backed Yes | 11c | 145.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked Yes | 12c | 144.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 13c | 136.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -92.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c1…e7dcbacked Yes | 19c | 134.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 13c | 134.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 8c | 130.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 9c | 124.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…e3dbbacked Yes | 16c | 123.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 13c | 119.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2a…6f46backed Yes | 15c | 118.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes | 10c | 113.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…b8f3backed Yes | 12c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa111…0c79backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923e…ab45backed Yes | 37c | 92.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…7edabacked Yes | 15c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June?this page
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$100 in June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?No won
- Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.