Commodities · resolved market
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on April 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9b479449b54cf592bf0e065d322a15bb48c4a55c359eb9783b11b3950762f9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 17c | 1,764$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 79c | 990.96$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.96 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…d013backed Yes | 13c | 744.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a5…b589backed Yes | 26c | 507.39$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 44c | 326.25$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed Yes | 4c | 323$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…dd70backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 44c | 297.75$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 6c | 282.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 17c | 206.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 63c | 161.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 54c | 153.85$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 153$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed Yes | 7c | 152.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed Yes | 41c | 149.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked Yes | 71c | 137.13$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 53c | 135.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 131.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…6bbbbacked Yes | 46c | 127$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf850…bfa9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 58c | 98.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 17c | 96.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 32c | 96.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…36efbacked No | 79c | 94.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 73c | 93.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a0…cb70backed Yes | 22c | 90.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 78.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 64c | 78.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 41c | 74.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…058dbacked Yes | 69c | 71.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 34c | 66.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 61.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 39c | 53.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…704fbacked Yes | 26c | 51.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03c…ec26backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 46c | 49.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c0…b049backed Yes | 71c | 47.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…77dcbacked No | 58c | 42.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 42.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 41c | 33.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 34c | 32.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed No | 80c | 25.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…62b2backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 63c | 23.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdb…5854backed Yes | 50c | 20.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…c270backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on April 12, 2026?this page
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 12, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 16 and 19 on April 12, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.