Commodities · resolved market
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1080671adfb31f453aa6e74a255dbb34d04a123f949cab4d3c1206de88caff3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 80c | 2,435$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.76 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,102$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,011$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 75c | 932.58$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.1 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…ceb2backed Yes | 61c | 814.44$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed Yes | 3c | 551.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 64c | 491.21$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.96 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 4c | 475.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 69c | 469.49$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 15c | 358.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…d8b9backed Yes | 10c | 323.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 18c | 273.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 76c | 246.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 27c | 215.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…ae51backed Yes | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…fcafbacked Yes | 40c | 185.19$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…2459backed Yes | 61c | 180$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 153$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 149.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a80…0047backed Yes | 22c | 148.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…c23dbacked Yes | 30c | 136.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 24c | 113$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 64c | 110.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 104$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 41c | 102.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 27c | 101.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +140%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 100.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 16c | 95.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…d6cfbacked Yes | 18c | 89.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdc…a29abacked Yes | 66c | 87.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…52c9backed Yes | 15c | 82.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 26c | 74.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221b…f7eabacked No | 76c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7499…dfcdbacked Yes | 44c | 68.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 18c | 66.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 65.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 63c | 48.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…ede2backed No | 33c | 46.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +207.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 32c | 37.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 55c | 36.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…c270backed No | 44c | 34.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 54c | 33.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…b0fdbacked Yes | 73c | 33.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…d1d9backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…3fe6backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…96d5backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…f075backed Yes | 41c | 26.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 51c | 26.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 24.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a0…cb70backed No | 53c | 21.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?this page
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 12, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 16 and 19 on April 12, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on April 12, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.