Commodities · resolved market
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d76b0be316b5044fb655ee5b1b6d458cd6b8b11a40fb9c4db1a575a3d2cb62c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28b9…a995backed Yes | 5c | 8,000$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 4c | 5,775$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.97 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa994…19a6backed Yes | 2c | 5,601$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…e8e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,727$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc485…c2a2backed Yes | 7c | 1,467$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 4c | 952.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 6c | 940.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…6c19backed Yes | 7c | 925.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 868.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 3c | 867.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 1c | 804.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 4c | 770$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 709.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…e527backed Yes | 5c | 686.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7c…95a6backed Yes | 4c | 596.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 580.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…b158backed Yes | 8c | 433.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 6c | 310.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…90ebbacked Yes | 5c | 310.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 276.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 260.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 12, 2026?this page
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 12, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 16 and 19 on April 12, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on April 12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.