Commodities · resolved market
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8153292497d6fd565744dcd34791082fa8fa5eafa8f55c8d017e557af8133002
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 60c | 2,452$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.58 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked No | 8c | 1,526$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 1,420$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.62 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 79c | 1,380$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.09 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 1c | 1,343$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 18c | 1,302$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 31c | 1,224$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.03 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab6…3a89backed Yes | 67c | 883.32$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 38c | 796.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 33c | 727.27$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9922…1a6fbacked No | 4c | 555.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 15c | 517$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.45 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 16c | 512.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 14c | 500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 6c | 335$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.16 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdb…8ffcbacked Yes | 77c | 323.15$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 72c | 314.31$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 72c | 304$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 291.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.5 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 64c | 218.44$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 35c | 205.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 31c | 204.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 59c | 183.41$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 62c | 175.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed Yes | 21c | 167.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.81 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 165.66$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.04 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 72c | 164.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 20c | 159.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.11 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 154.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 18c | 153$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 152.08$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 64c | 130.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…d6cfbacked Yes | 8c | 126.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a0…cb70backed Yes | 11c | 118$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed Yes | 25c | 117.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…5cdbbacked Yes | 28c | 106.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 21c | 106$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 29c | 90.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 14c | 89.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 77c | 83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 28c | 67.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 36c | 61.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed No | 76c | 58.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 24c | 53.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 39c | 51.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 79c | 50.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 49.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked No | 32c | 47.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 74c | 46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…6bbbbacked Yes | 35c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…becfbacked Yes | 63c | 36.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 73c | 30.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 77c | 29.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed Yes | 65c | 20.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…c765backed Yes | 65c | 20.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd140…810dbacked No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?this page
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 12, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 16 and 19 on April 12, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on April 12, 2026?No won
- Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 12, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.