TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x221b…f7ea

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
91
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: La Liga, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 54 out of 100; worst Premier League at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4652.2%24 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$16.15
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+37.4%+$38.4
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.84
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.57
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$4.5
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+147.1%+$15.48
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+52.8%+$6.91
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+255.9%+$44.58
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+63%+$9.28
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.47
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$12.86
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.89
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.04
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+99.5%+$33.91
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.2
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+247.4%+$130.33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+44.8%+$25.68
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+33.1%+$25.1
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.18
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+71.3%+$35.39
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+60%+$19.88
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.88
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+76%+$13.39
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+63%+$8.51
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$5.42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.3
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.86
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+45.7%+$150.25
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$27.09
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.96
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$22.79
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.65
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$16.59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+34%+$24.23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.07
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.95
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$17.85
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+55%+$12.77
All 14 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Warriors vs. Jazzbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
Clippers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+39.4%+$5.65
Heat vs. Hornetsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+33.9%+$10.13
Mavericks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+37%+$9.25
Trail Blazers vs. Jazzbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+37%+$16.67
Clippers vs. Rocketsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+81.8%+$61.09
Pacers vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+28.5%+$9.12
Clippers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+37%+$5.55
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick68cpaid-66.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+56.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UMBC Retrievers vs. Maine Black Bearsbacked Maine Black Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$10
New Mexico Lobos vs. Grand Canyon Antelopesbacked Grand Canyon Antelopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$12.33
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationalsbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.9
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.74
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Ducksbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+75.4%+$43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+65.7%+$7.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$12.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+25.5%+$21.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.