Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e373adcc5165260dea3db0efd8e193c62821a7c2484fd722e0d80cc5e2304d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb401…df2abacked Yes | 25c | 8,336$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,091.11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…3a16backed Yes | 35c | 2,292$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…b8f1backed Yes | 18c | 1,050$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 22c | 824.63$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 456.7$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.53 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 32c | 446.28$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…664dbacked No | 76c | 438.66$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 305.85$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…0afebacked Yes | 33c | 302$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2726…db23backed Yes | 33c | 302$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…018abacked Yes | 33c | 302$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc9…3758backed Yes | 33c | 302$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d7…1aa4backed Yes | 33c | 282$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 266$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 254.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c8…98c7backed Yes | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…d347backed Yes | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b9…17e6backed Yes | 40c | 222$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…a7d1backed Yes | 36c | 222$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…c260backed Yes | 35c | 222$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 26c | 220$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 16c | 218.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…4935backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…d973backed No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…7a51backed No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b05…8f48backed No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebab…2137backed No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…fea4backed No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…bdd4backed No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…0798backed No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f8…2406backed No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…5122backed No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…e99cbacked No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…5381backed No | 67c | 147.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…45c7backed No | 69c | 145$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97f…05dcbacked No | 70c | 142$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaba…1520backed No | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2411…5e31backed No | 72c | 138$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…5b49backed No | 67c | 135.09$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 133.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 126.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 117$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 116.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48e0…2748backed No | 72c | 112$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ce…0716backed Yes | 32c | 101.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…8150backed Yes | 37c | 101.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked No | 74c | 98.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…64a6backed Yes | 23c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 34c | 83.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 33c | 81.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 31c | 74.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 29c | 71.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…b027backed Yes | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 29c | 64.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 55c | 56.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…9970backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…c580backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 60c | 43.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…7301backed Yes | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb203…afb0backed Yes | 24c | 42.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 40.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 28c | 35.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 35.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 32c | 33.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…d485backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 66c | 21.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 73c | 19.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in March?this page
- Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.00 in March?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–2.25 in March?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in March?Yes won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in March?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.00–3.25 in March?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in March?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.50–3.75 in March?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.75–4.00 in March?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost ≥$4.00 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.