TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfa89…9970

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Lol, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 55 out of 100; worst Commodities at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT2050%10 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+117%+$35.75
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.83
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.12
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.52
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.6
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.37
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+258.4%+$154.28
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.88
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+162.6%+$42.1
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+52.1%+$14.44
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.65
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.17
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$5.76
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.55
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.43
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$4.22
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+41.7%+$30.42
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+90.5%+$9.5
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+84.8%+$15.71
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+80.7%+$37.95
All 20 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Xinjiang Flying Tigers vs. Tianjin Pioneersbacked Xinjiang Flying Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+82.6%+$52.47
Qingdao Eagles vs. Guangdong Southern Tigersbacked Qingdao Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.19
Barcelona vs. Panathinaikosbacked Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.59
All 3 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+235.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Misa Esports vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffsbacked Misa Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+46%+$8.82
LoL: French Flair vs BIG - Game 2 Winnerbacked French Flair · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+425.1%+$209.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+190.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.34
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.57
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: M80 vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Group Stagebacked M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+63%+$11.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+36.2%+$7.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$4.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Players (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffsbacked MIBR Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$3.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-04-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Scotland vs Omanbacked Scotland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs L1ga Team (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group Stage Deciderbacked Yellow Submarine · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.