Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbc077997ce539b6d59e981b3d52055650c4f3ded20855a4539b99bd43262321
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d7d…cbe3backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 19c | 3,988$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.45 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 5c | 3,447$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.49 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 9c | 2,419$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.72 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,345$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 1c | 2,126$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,946$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26e…b084backed No | 3c | 1,784$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 7c | 1,725$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.89 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…2393backed Yes | 68c | 1,596$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.7 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 24c | 1,584$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 7c | 1,458$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 10c | 1,445$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 17c | 1,412$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 27c | 1,359$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.42 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 4c | 1,209$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…ef13backed No | 6c | 1,064$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +123%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 79c | 940.91$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.92 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 66c | 939.22$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.61 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 23c | 899.99$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked No | 28c | 852.46$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.77 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 10c | 756.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 3c | 704.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 671.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 8c | 669.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 62c | 641.99$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.52 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 2c | 559.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 15c | 539.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 42c | 535.14$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.99 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…9517backed Yes | 77c | 517.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 507.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked No | 29c | 507.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.7 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.41 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…7d90backed No | 43c | 464.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 450.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 426.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…beb5backed Yes | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…08fabacked No | 49c | 386.21$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.16 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 19c | 378.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…00c7backed No | 7c | 350.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f5…db45backed Yes | 74c | 350$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 58c | 346.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.62 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…d9f9backed No | 8c | 340.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 16c | 334.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 11c | 326.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…a31ebacked No | 48c | 296.05$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30cc…5ed3backed No | 31c | 290.58$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 4c | 280$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 45c | 279.19$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.19 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked Yes | 62c | 262.39$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db6…24c3backed No | 80c | 249.85$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 80c | 243.01$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 79c | 240.35$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.79 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 7c | 233.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 5c | 229.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 70c | 202.72$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 30c | 186.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 182.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…b8eabacked Yes | 80c | 173.04$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 172.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x147b…65f5backed Yes | 70c | 171.76$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 77c | 171.43$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…5905backed Yes | 68c | 169.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 67c | 163.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…51c7backed Yes | 61c | 162.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed Yes | 62c | 160.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d19…fb97backed No | 29c | 159.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 51c | 156.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 75c | 155.69$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…3277backed Yes | 60c | 155.38$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked No | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7571…3bcbbacked Yes | 77c | 143.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked No | 28c | 132$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 114 | 32.5%37 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…2599backed No | 32c | 130.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes | 77c | 130.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…d2cfbacked No | 39c | 129.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 38c | 125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked No | 14c | 119.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…6a27backed Yes | 77c | 116.45$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85f…3705backed No | 10c | 114.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 20c | 109.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…80e3backed No | 23c | 105$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…5568backed Yes | 69c | 102.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c059backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…c249backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…22a1backed Yes | 62c | 96.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed No | 15c | 93.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98e…c752backed No | 20c | 92.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked No | 76c | 88.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x537b…f0a0backed No | 48c | 85.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 22c | 81.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…ded9backed No | 38c | 80.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8228…bbdfbacked Yes | 64c | 78.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…a745backed No | 37c | 74.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.