Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccf518fc7aaa1b9d7527c1d37cfc6df13cf22dcfc59fd4b19fcd201a4b2ecdc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked No | 2c | 5,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 21c | 3,110$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.27 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…b017backed Yes | 78c | 2,300$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.1 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 1c | 2,031$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 4c | 1,610$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 22c | 1,154$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,118$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 10c | 1,053$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 968.24$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 807.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 12c | 624$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 3c | 577.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 17c | 573.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed Yes | 72c | 550.17$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 11c | 452.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…9a74backed No | 22c | 451.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed No | 15c | 450.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…5475backed No | 15c | 396.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 4c | 392.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 4c | 321.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 317.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 277.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 78c | 257.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 10c | 253.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 8c | 233.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed No | 21c | 187.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 40c | 169.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked No | 8c | 163$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccbb…6e07backed Yes | 80c | 156.14$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed Yes | 80c | 155$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +13.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…fa8dbacked No | 15c | 132.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde6c…0ec0backed Yes | 77c | 121.56$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 60c | 106.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d92…d269backed No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…190ebacked Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 77c | 34.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +10.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…839dbacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…be17backed Yes | 69c | 21.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad0…1153backed Yes | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.