Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7b9a96b092b55f71d3bfb0a35213c4d2ef389684cab32bffb15189e43b25a76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 13c | 2,824$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.43 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 79c | 2,500$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.97 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 77c | 2,265$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.68 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed No | 10c | 2,196$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.52 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 1c | 2,148$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 1c | 1,982$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 1,651$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.17 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 4c | 1,620$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 3c | 1,540$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 20c | 1,280$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.88 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked Yes | 79c | 1,278$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.36 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed No | 16c | 1,111$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 25c | 1,085$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.75 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 11c | 1,065$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.89 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 13c | 1,021$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.49 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 12c | 1,008$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 18c | 1,000$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 9c | 781.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 775.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 13c | 761.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 18c | 757.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed No | 8c | 725.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 23c | 686.59$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.76 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 9c | 663.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 4c | 663$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 654.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed No | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 3c | 556.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked No | 25c | 512.47$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.79 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 510$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked No | 17c | 501.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 15c | 500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 31c | 499.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 5c | 460.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked No | 4c | 448.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed Yes | 70c | 429.15$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.15 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 37c | 400.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.04 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 13c | 390.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked No | 14c | 369.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked No | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 14c | 299.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 21c | 295.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 7c | 277.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +11.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 17c | 274.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 25c | 270.71$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked No | 15c | 260.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 68c | 260.66$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 14c | 258.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a69…fc08backed No | 4c | 256.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c3…a901backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…08fabacked No | 28c | 249.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8edbbacked No | 4c | 225$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…a31ebacked No | 29c | 223.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 6c | 206.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 78c | 206.69$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc038…2c07backed Yes | 73c | 205.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…e98dbacked No | 24c | 204.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 9c | 203.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c059backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…1962backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…3fa5backed No | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7be…539fbacked No | 16c | 195.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 70 | 72.9%51 W · 19 L | +12.4wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 189.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d19…fb97backed No | 19c | 189.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 53c | 167.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…873ebacked No | 16c | 160.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 35c | 150.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed Yes | 75c | 139.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 32c | 121.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd140…810dbacked Yes | 63c | 115$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 19c | 107.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…2599backed No | 26c | 105.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked No | 46c | 104$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 100.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…ebccbacked No | 27c | 99.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467f…dd1cbacked No | 21c | 97.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…51dabacked No | 23c | 96.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 22c | 90.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed No | 22c | 90.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 21c | 89.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 16c | 87.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 14c | 85.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed No | 28c | 79.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 16c | 77.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd259…76fdbacked No | 32c | 76.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed No | 16c | 73.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 26c | 73.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…5c59backed Yes | 69c | 72.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed No | 19c | 72.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f5…db45backed Yes | 76c | 71.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x537b…f0a0backed No | 51c | 70.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30cc…5ed3backed No | 20c | 70.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d26…f91dbacked No | 22c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed No | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.