Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f141711bcd9aeb98104b20023a6eff8d4c5287391f78654844bba9af003576b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 2c | 2,748$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…7d90backed No | 7c | 2,302$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 1c | 2,018$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 1,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked No | 4c | 660.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 630.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 57c | 394.04$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.51 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed No | 8c | 375.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 297.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed No | 59c | 273.63$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.68 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 4c | 247.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…00d4backed Yes | 41c | 247$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…b6f0backed No | 25c | 197.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…42dcbacked No | 25c | 193.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129e…7710backed No | 25c | 190.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…963dbacked No | 25c | 189.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…bbc4backed No | 25c | 188.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…57e2backed No | 25c | 186.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…6c6fbacked No | 25c | 186.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bb…4131backed No | 25c | 186.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf01…92fabacked No | 25c | 185.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…d3debacked No | 25c | 185.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…c0a3backed No | 25c | 184.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…58ecbacked No | 25c | 184.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…d40fbacked No | 25c | 178.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…b682backed No | 25c | 175.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…d2b3backed No | 25c | 172.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 33c | 158.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 15c | 129.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147b…65f5backed Yes | 50c | 122.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 41c | 90.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…e564backed Yes | 42c | 71.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd92…493fbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 75c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 8, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.