Music · resolved market
Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be less than 25 points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fa63759887924ea857fe51a3e0fc2deda0a88f3792fbcfa202e9c3138bfd1e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Yes | 22c | 10,307$2,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,284.93 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…6609backed No | 78c | 3,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 78c | 2,222$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.84 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 66c | 996.3$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.74 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed No | 76c | 888$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.12 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 74c | 658.48$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.09 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed No | 67c | 635.58$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 65c | 525.02$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 77c | 502.67$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…7240backed No | 65c | 500.83$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 425.13$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.03 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 370.85$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.83 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 75c | 330$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…451bbacked No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 73c | 292$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.53 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 268.25$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x939f…292ebacked No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e0…3e9abacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 100.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…7946backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…eb0cbacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f2…1cc8backed Yes | 22c | 55.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 80c | 53.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 21c | 52.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 25c | 51.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf76a…b506backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e63…134fbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 80c | 40.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6494…c1b7backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b63…55fcbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be less than 25 points?this page
- Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be 150 points or greater?Yes won
- Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 100 and 124 points?No won
- Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 125 and 149 points?No won
- Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 25 and 49 points?No won
- Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 50 and 74 points?No won
- Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be between 75 and 99 points?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.