TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,956
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,623

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,956 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes26c27,414$7,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,180.482334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No74c24,918$18,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,508.537122.5%16 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes30c13,294$3,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,354.3322433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes19c8,377$1,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,748.593426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes23c4,327$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,331.928632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No75c3,129$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.9712049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5509…7212backed Yes33c2,555$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,708.37728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked No65c1,600$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.371070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+41.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c1,527$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.1915148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes29c1,387$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.773655.6%20 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x16f6…fc9bbacked No74c1,374$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.271060%6 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e10…70f4backed No75c1,266$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.241827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes20c1,251$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.63633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No70c1,168$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes16c1,145$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.543138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes34c1,131$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.167030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes29c1,110$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.478528.2%24 W · 61 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes27c1,060$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.5714325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No67c1,045$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.381464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed No77c1,039$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.733231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfab0…bd9cbacked Yes28c982.1$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.35933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+16%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes32c886.44$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.031330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6768…692dbacked No65c859.12$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.081450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Yes25c811.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+103.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No67c794.8$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.441163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No75c667.23$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.351070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No71c652.45$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.022941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb87…d3a5backed Yes31c608.31$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.11850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b6…f9d9backed No64c600$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.6137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-84.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes25c558.59$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.431145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No70c536$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.951729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-43.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f63…6643backed Yes74c499.22$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8520100%20 W · 0 L+5.4wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No65c498.93$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.181866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes19c433.57$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.5296.9%2 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No61c385.99$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.552965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes18c372.79$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.862711.1%3 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No68c369.87$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.892951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes36c360.39$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.842839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9752…8087backed No66c334.47$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c294.99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.0717528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes18c284.58$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.36944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No70c250$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.81612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-83.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes28c243.02$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+76.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed No13c230.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed No72c229.2$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.111060%6 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked No68c212.4$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.077525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2af…28c3backed No76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.971717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes20c183.98$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.386827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c181$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.333873.7%28 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd74c…4ffebacked Yes43c180.67$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No65c160$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes24c158.17$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.25330.2%16 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe055…8df9backed Yes15c152$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.9605%3 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No75c149.19$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes17c141.66$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.611952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa026…734cbacked Yes18c125.65$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.34520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No50c118.77$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.830918.1%56 W · 253 L-29.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes31c111.97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+219.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked No78c108.47$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf2…31f0backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6231…84bbbacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+271.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df3…8627backed Yes30c98.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+65.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes16c98.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.381729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ca…2c14backed Yes38c93.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.09812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-66.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes75c92.17$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+38.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e6b…9f9bbacked No80c85.48$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.11366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33e…b4b6backed Yes27c84.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes30c82.05$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.571145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes21c81.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.55520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No66c78$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.623666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No66c73.35$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.536139.3%24 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c84…4fe3backed Yes37c66.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+167.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No68c63.51$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.11361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.163857.9%22 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.83663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6746…d842backed No73c54.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.31258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No73c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.25425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-60.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0386…e95ebacked No71c48.16$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee0…2fc9backed No68c45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e93…be55backed Yes36c40.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+166.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9be5…985ebacked Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.32616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-54.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf64…e473backed Yes29c37.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+70.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked No75c33.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.022060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x101e…d4dabacked No68c28.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No65c22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.37366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb477…673ebacked No70c21.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71c6…3eb8backed No71c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.42466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73df…c515backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No68c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.