TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,748
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,965

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,748 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed No67c21,644$14,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,151.197122.5%16 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes35c13,447$4,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,723.422433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes32c7,951$2,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,544.328632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes34c7,661$2,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.442334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes25c2,292$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.443426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0d…93debacked Yes36c2,000$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.961250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No65c1,669$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.1523330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16f6…fc9bbacked No68c1,469$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.461060%6 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Yes34c1,332$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes33c1,314$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.997030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes38c1,180$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.386827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5509…7212backed Yes39c1,143$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes37c1,112$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.318528.2%24 W · 61 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No72c1,101$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.2412049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No60c1,001$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.521464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes33c988.94$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.8214325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…74f5backed No64c965.15$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.451553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+208.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No59c799.49$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.51163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes34c787.16$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.681729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-43.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes38c752.31$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.371723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes37c749.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.691258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes32c707.11$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.071145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes38c703.44$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.081330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes19c651.88$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.253138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No64c647.69$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.471070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb87…d3a5backed Yes39c570.95$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes40c549.49$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.514254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes20c521$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No61c498.05$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.731866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfab0…bd9cbacked Yes37c495.07$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.39933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+16%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No62c454.16$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.122951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No63c445$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2af…28c3backed Yes35c379.99$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.931717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes40c375.77$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.542839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c336.26$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9615148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes9c329.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae1…d85abacked Yes45c317.93$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31d6…3f8dbacked Yes41c298.7$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+47.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No60c286.33$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.522965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes33c280.48$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9917528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes40c250$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.756523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed No65c238.91$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.561060%6 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9343…75f7backed Yes23c204.12$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No65c200$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes28c159.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.332711.1%3 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c152$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.993663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No59c146$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.173857.9%22 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1980…3c8dbacked Yes40c125.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No71c120$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.213873.7%28 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa026…734cbacked Yes38c108.74$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.82520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df3…8627backed Yes38c104.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+65.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No65c100.6$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.443450%17 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes28c98.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285330.2%16 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf389…c39ebacked Yes42c95.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…9f6dbacked No61c88.52$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.522100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+117.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.162937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No62c73.95$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.476139.3%24 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cd2…5844backed Yes44c68.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc33e…b4b6backed Yes36c61.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.211361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.283666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa068…1dfbbacked Yes39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No68c58.34$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.841952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No63c55.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…0cf5backed Yes48c52.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+59.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x24a3…ec81backed No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2db…140abacked No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+23.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb12c…fae5backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes32c49.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No73c45.47$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.083743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccd0…f4cabacked Yes35c42.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes35c42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8710836.1%39 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x278e…6a5ebacked Yes48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9be5…985ebacked Yes43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.02616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-54.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes37c37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.732050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db8…ed19backed Yes35c36.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick33cpaid-66.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No54c33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6c…1838backed No66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.962060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d2…7b9dbacked No71c29.05$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0386…e95ebacked No63c26.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2801…ebdcbacked Yes40c26.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No61c24.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb477…673ebacked No62c24.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.19683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff57…56d1backed No57c23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e10…70f4backed No72c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.261827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No62c20.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.842466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No62c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No59c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.99366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e6b…9f9bbacked No70c16.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.93366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34e…bb55backed No66c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.44785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick51cpaid+76.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.621872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.