Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd39c894d914f5da8e3d4473ce742f885f28c56e6c999b427c3a7bcf34bb0eb3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 17c | 4,249$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.3 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 27c | 3,081$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.83 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea8…dc7fbacked Yes | 18c | 2,577$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b6…f9d9backed Yes | 16c | 2,104$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.21 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…561dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,825$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 16c | 1,668$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.89 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…3fcbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,498$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,170$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.57 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 20c | 951.5$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.97 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 889.98$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.85 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 23c | 889.63$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.83 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 79c | 884.27$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.81 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…93debacked Yes | 25c | 819.16$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 23c | 710.1$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.63 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b6…48cabacked Yes | 16c | 631.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes | 17c | 600$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 76c | 539.28$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Yes | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…bfa1backed Yes | 20c | 374.08$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Yes | 18c | 284$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes | 20c | 274$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ef…1dd4backed Yes | 39c | 272.87$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7a…1d90backed Yes | 19c | 266.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 19c | 254.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 80c | 228.26$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Yes | 19c | 208$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 20c | 199.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 30c | 160.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 18c | 157.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 17c | 157.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 70c | 153.28$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 31c | 138.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…75f7backed Yes | 34c | 137.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Yes | 18c | 133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb15…df4cbacked Yes | 28c | 131.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 29c | 129.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…1d79backed Yes | 18c | 125.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 30c | 125.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed No | 69c | 118.8$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 113.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…5844backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e85…4ba4backed Yes | 30c | 108$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33e…b4b6backed Yes | 22c | 102.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…fc9bbacked No | 78c | 101.7$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12c…fae5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Yes | 20c | 97.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 30c | 96.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 74c | 92.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…d227backed Yes | 18c | 83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Yes | 19c | 83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 80.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd400…c7e9backed Yes | 27c | 67.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…702dbacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 71c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 32c | 56.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 55.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…96f4backed Yes | 19c | 54.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 25c | 52.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 52.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…c628backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 47.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 70c | 45.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…6a31backed Yes | 31c | 37.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked No | 68c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?this page
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in April?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in April?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.4% in April?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?Yes won
- Will annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by 4.0% in April?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≤3.1% in April?No won
- Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.