Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c34d9826992a9c141776ad3c467bfd85432b1f92b76e134f7790a173208e374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 6,338$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 71c | 4,940$3,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.45 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 15c | 3,903$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 2,595$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.26 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes | 26c | 2,507$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,858.94 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 11c | 2,500$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.09 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 74c | 1,507$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.65 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…72eebacked Yes | 70c | 1,430$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 20c | 1,418$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.51 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…5531backed No | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 1,116$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.37 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 57c | 1,069$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.57 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 9c | 1,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 12c | 969.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.32 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 19c | 938.75$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.47 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 2c | 870.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.51 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 30c | 788.37$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 46c | 732.37$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…14ddbacked Yes | 14c | 686.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 23c | 682.13$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…db1ebacked Yes | 78c | 624.79$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 15c | 463.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 15c | 430.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 48c | 430.38$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 40c | 418.84$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.31 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 405.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 382.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 15c | 343.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.25per pick | 34cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 276$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…5d15backed Yes | 48c | 266.57$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed No | 11c | 260.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 69c | 259.91$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 14c | 254.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.6 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Yes | 13c | 240$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.8 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 16c | 221.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.47 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 21c | 213.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.34 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 70c | 185.12$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc265…50a0backed No | 12c | 167.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed No | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 70c | 145$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 13c | 136.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.13 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…62cbbacked Yes | 50c | 119.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 44c | 117.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fb…6c85backed Yes | 11c | 115.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +833.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 50c | 114.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 52c | 113.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fa…abcfbacked No | 32c | 111.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…7b84backed Yes | 76c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…d3a5backed Yes | 19c | 107$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 19c | 104.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 37c | 98.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 32c | 95.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 16c | 89.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed Yes | 57c | 88.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 70c | 78.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 72.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…5072backed Yes | 74c | 69.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 50c | 66.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 56c | 60.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 52.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 25c | 42.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…f580backed Yes | 49c | 38.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…bf12backed Yes | 55c | 36.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 57c | 30.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d29…71c2backed Yes | 54c | 26.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 74c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?this page
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?No won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.