Commodities · resolved market
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc39494e85e29ec132d51be64a4baa2dfcd06acc6320b1419f8cdccb84c5ab8d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 1c | 16,113$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.31 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 11,701$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 14c | 4,069$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.87 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,865$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.83 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 2,532$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.93 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,063$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.38 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 24c | 1,866$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes | 10c | 1,227$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 28c | 996.05$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.07 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 46c | 779.37$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.73 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 70c | 731.06$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 47c | 719.73$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 10c | 714.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 43c | 693.48$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.58 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 679$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.97 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 44c | 677.07$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.69 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 37c | 654.98$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.73 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed Yes | 25c | 599.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.89 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Yes | 56c | 536.25$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfa…79e7backed Yes | 47c | 534.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…4aa3backed Yes | 10c | 500.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7932…5b38backed Yes | 41c | 459.89$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 421.97$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89da…b5f2backed Yes | 9c | 421.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 57c | 412.13$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…6bb0backed Yes | 12c | 410$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 43c | 388.77$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.21 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 27c | 384.33$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 9c | 382.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed Yes | 39c | 371.16$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 339$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 80c | 303$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 54c | 293.55$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.67 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 4c | 283.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 279.9$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 8c | 269.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 256.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 54c | 253$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 18c | 250.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f95…7821backed Yes | 44c | 227.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc265…50a0backed Yes | 10c | 205.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…af89backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 38c | 195.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…2c73backed Yes | 57c | 191.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 177.62$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed Yes | 38c | 145.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 18c | 145$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…5100backed No | 70c | 142.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 134.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 20c | 133.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…dbf9backed No | 60c | 132.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 51c | 126$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 57c | 125$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…db1ebacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 75c | 117.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…509bbacked Yes | 17c | 114.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fa…abcfbacked No | 71c | 111.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…3dbcbacked Yes | 11c | 110.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…7b84backed Yes | 16c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…7228backed Yes | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…5d15backed Yes | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +98%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 48c | 98.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 51c | 94.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a2…0902backed Yes | 60c | 93.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…2955backed Yes | 54c | 93.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 49c | 90.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 14c | 89.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 21c | 86.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 55c | 85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 65c | 82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 78.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfc…d703backed No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 73c | 68.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 37c | 67.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 31c | 66.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 62.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 45c | 60.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…14e3backed Yes | 41c | 60.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…0f28backed No | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4d…491fbacked Yes | 53c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…e53bbacked No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…bf12backed Yes | 46c | 50.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 48.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…9f6dbacked No | 45c | 42.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…d3a5backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 55c | 36.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?this page
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?No won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.