Commodities · resolved market
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x998f21b5cf468000b65ba65da055934737b77e7f53356c721b6e2dda73e134c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 3,604$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…c076backed Yes | 2c | 1,360$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…1515backed Yes | 3c | 999.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2c…b437backed Yes | 14c | 803.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 4c | 485.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 465.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed Yes | 8c | 256$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 8c | 234.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 11c | 209.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 8c | 203.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 6c | 192.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…5d15backed Yes | 8c | 183.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?this page
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?No won
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?No won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?No won
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.