IPO · resolved market
Will Madison Air’s market cap be greater than $13.5B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7983de6e9eaba32ecfa993c575cdfdecd7825867b76e0a98cb981789d52cc7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc23e…1461backed Yes | 53c | 7,019$3,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,293.99 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 53c | 3,232$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,707.06 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed No | 55c | 1,420$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 52c | 1,354$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.83 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 33c | 1,202$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.05 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed76…8520backed No | 48c | 1,200$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 420.74$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.16 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 61c | 303.38$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.55 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed No | 48c | 270.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…f61ebacked No | 48c | 268.77$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x630d…bc8dbacked No | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 182.22$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af2…1215backed Yes | 34c | 169.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6764…9332backed Yes | 50c | 147.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 70c | 140$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 64c | 132.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 125.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…7ddfbacked Yes | 47c | 122.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70cd…4694backed No | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 68c | 92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 68c | 90.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1245backed No | 65c | 56.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 56.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…ac39backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3885…7ca3backed Yes | 50c | 42.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…5864backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 34.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Yes | 58c | 34.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 52c | 28.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 58c | 27.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed No | 52c | 25.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…3588backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 78c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Madison Air’s market cap be greater than $13.5B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Madison Air not IPO before June 2026?No won
- Will Madison Air’s market cap be between $12.0B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Madison Air’s market cap be between $12.5B and $13.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Madison Air’s market cap be between $13.0B and $13.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Madison Air’s market cap be less than $12.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.