CS2 · resolved market
Will FURIA win PGL Astana 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87e2c6e9e2fff9645a03f71fb42b101a42577d967f147bfe5736e8aa5f591d87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,604$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.31 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c7…77c4backed Yes | 11c | 1,033$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 188 | 46.3%87 W · 101 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…31d5backed Yes | 13c | 1,004$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…f91abacked Yes | 16c | 949.98$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 16c | 855.61$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.35 | 291 | 27.5%80 W · 211 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe111…685abacked Yes | 19c | 627.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.13 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Yes | 10c | 572.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b3…a386backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf7…294abacked Yes | 23c | 472.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.75 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked Yes | 14c | 423.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 13c | 391.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 170 | 34.7%59 W · 111 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa92e…1160backed Yes | 13c | 390$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 207 | 32.4%67 W · 140 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 27c | 318.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 182 | 61%111 W · 71 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…68e2backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 298.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde94…6742backed Yes | 16c | 292.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 285.61$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…3cecbacked Yes | 12c | 240.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 79c | 235$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 11c | 221.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 74c | 199.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 358 | 61.7%221 W · 137 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…7505backed Yes | 18c | 199.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…e315backed Yes | 18c | 191.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes | 20c | 191.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 190$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaca1…a5f0backed Yes | 17c | 188.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1908…5649backed Yes | 16c | 180.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 154.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 137$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 194 | 23.7%46 W · 148 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…8fa3backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 217 | 62.7%136 W · 81 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…f611backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…2860backed Yes | 11c | 99.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 80c | 91.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 88.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +61%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x217c…a1f1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 66c | 24.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 80c | 20.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FURIA win PGL Astana 2026?this page
- Will 9z win PGL Astana 2026?No won
- Will Aurora win PGL Astana 2026?No won
- Will Falcons win PGL Astana 2026?No won
- Will G2 win PGL Astana 2026?No won
- Will Heroic win PGL Astana 2026?No won
- Will MOUZ win PGL Astana 2026?No won
- Will Magic win PGL Astana 2026?No won
- Will PARIVISION win PGL Astana 2026?No won
- Will Spirit win PGL Astana 2026?Yes won
- Will The Huns win PGL Astana 2026?No won
- Will The MongolZ win PGL Astana 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.