Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe21e7e78f24288dab26061d3cd4878eafa57d4047118ffe39209ae6540be85db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 49c | 834.42$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.46 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 31c | 802.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.12 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…dc68backed Yes | 51c | 561.09$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 19c | 537.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed No | 54c | 526.2$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.97 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e4…ca09backed Yes | 77c | 430.22$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 54c | 395.32$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.06 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 14c | 350.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed No | 50c | 337.42$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.31 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 20c | 256.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 56c | 256.59$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.21 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 21c | 244.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed Yes | 66c | 210.64$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…bbebbacked Yes | 48c | 197.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…fe0ebacked Yes | 49c | 193.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…699dbacked No | 52c | 176.7$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 47c | 171.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 49c | 166.1$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 13c | 159.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ab…5468backed Yes | 77c | 145.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 52c | 124.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 28c | 121.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 63c | 106.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…a974backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…70d9backed Yes | 50c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 51c | 93.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 52c | 90.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 44c | 74.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed No | 49c | 67.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…9f08backed No | 50c | 67.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 52.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 51c | 51.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8418…e6b5backed Yes | 59c | 50.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…0734backed No | 47c | 49.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 34c | 39.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf7…7b1ebacked Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 73c | 36.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked Yes | 53c | 36.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…e8e7backed No | 54c | 35.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…35dcbacked Yes | 49c | 32.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da0…72fabacked No | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…2900backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb57…4dcbbacked Yes | 48c | 28.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 71c | 28.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…c147backed No | 54c | 26.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a7…bc3ebacked Yes | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…ad79backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8865…ead7backed Yes | 48c | 21.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 57c | 21.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…dc9bbacked No | 51c | 20.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Yes | 72c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…1ed5backed No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a32…215cbacked Yes | 55c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.