World Politics · resolved market
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95a7c8f39ccda84bf59b54c474f2a006cbc4167737630365f416670466b37ab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,950,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,081,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,950,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 2c | 144,890$3,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100.75 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked No | 1c | 141,513$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.03 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…bd09backed No | 5c | 120,025$5,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,504.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed No | 6c | 115,000$6,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,555 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 7c | 81,287$5,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,470.03 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…6621backed No | 10c | 60,000$5,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,730 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…2caabacked No | 8c | 34,381$2,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,897.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c53…bffebacked No | 5c | 31,739$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c44…fcd4backed No | 9c | 26,571$2,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,313.43 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 1c | 25,804$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.26 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da9…0afabacked No | 8c | 25,684$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 1c | 25,216$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.92 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…aec5backed No | 1c | 23,509$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 9c | 22,872$2,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108.74 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf90f…a9e1backed No | 9c | 21,375$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,861.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 7c | 21,359$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.23 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 6c | 20,555$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.42 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed No | 7c | 20,515$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6635…ecb4backed No | 6c | 20,413$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…5b6dbacked No | 1c | 20,003$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab8…1b4abacked No | 1c | 18,534$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 2c | 18,209$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.73 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db5…f6ddbacked No | 5c | 17,049$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 1c | 12,854$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.05 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…4c88backed No | 6c | 10,796$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +269.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 6c | 10,523$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 8cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 1c | 10,384$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a025backed No | 7c | 10,307$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 2c | 10,159$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.2 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae0…b4cebacked No | 10c | 10,000$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b6…83c8backed No | 3c | 9,758$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 2c | 9,200$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked No | 1c | 8,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…af60backed No | 6c | 7,434$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 8c | 7,000$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.87 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 9c | 6,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 2c | 5,926$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 1c | 5,608$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 4c | 5,401$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4a…371cbacked No | 1c | 5,276$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +171%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 0c | 5,085$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked No | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…9109backed No | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 6c | 5,000$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.5 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 5c | 4,653$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.13 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 5c | 4,518$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.88 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a5…2744backed No | 5c | 4,182$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9826…e7febacked No | 5c | 4,100$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd607…4b09backed No | 5c | 3,961$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 9c | 3,415$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.54 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1499…6690backed No | 4c | 3,370$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 3c | 3,279$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked No | 10c | 3,245$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1269…e39ebacked No | 8c | 3,200$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed No | 2c | 3,173$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…ef6abacked No | 9c | 3,144$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 1c | 3,006$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed No | 2c | 3,002$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 6c | 3,000$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked No | 10c | 3,000$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.64 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed No | 1c | 2,935$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…4b06backed No | 1c | 2,727$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…9ac8backed No | 5c | 2,716$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…0b72backed No | 1c | 2,650$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 2c | 2,632$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 7c | 2,522$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,520$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 7c | 2,500$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.38 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d4…e363backed No | 2c | 2,488$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 2,442$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.47 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 9c | 2,400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 4c | 2,385$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 2,368$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c68…d23ebacked No | 5c | 2,366$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…3ee3backed No | 5c | 2,357$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebae…fb79backed No | 1c | 2,326$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 9c | 2,222$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.87 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked No | 5c | 2,174$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…a4c2backed No | 2c | 2,147$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7959…1af2backed No | 6c | 2,138$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…d788backed No | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 7c | 2,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.41 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…4737backed No | 1c | 1,996$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a2…9981backed No | 5c | 1,980$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9299backed No | 4c | 1,905$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 4c | 1,887$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…3010backed No | 6c | 1,832$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked No | 6c | 1,737$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed No | 6c | 1,690$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 2c | 1,632$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d84…2939backed No | 2c | 1,603$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…d31bbacked No | 2c | 1,600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…6569backed No | 9c | 1,584$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 5c | 1,553$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 2c | 1,511$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…3b1abacked No | 6c | 1,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed No | 10c | 1,463$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e2…9629backed No | 3c | 1,378$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f3…975cbacked No | 2c | 1,364$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?this page
- Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?No won
- Will Jovan Owusu-Nepaul win the Clacton by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.