TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,950,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,081,383

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,950,322 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd8c1…16c0backed No2c144,890$3,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,100.753633.3%12 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked No1c141,513$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.035536.4%20 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2967…bd09backed No5c120,025$5,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,504.6742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+60.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d1…8ce8backed No6c115,000$6,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,555475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed No7c81,287$5,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,470.035330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcac…6621backed No10c60,000$5,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7301145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+180.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x63c6…2caabacked No8c34,381$2,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,897.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c53…bffebacked No5c31,739$1,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8c44…fcd4backed No9c26,571$2,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,313.431533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No1c25,804$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.2622355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8da9…0afabacked No8c25,684$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No1c25,216$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.9235258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55c6…aec5backed No1c23,509$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No9c22,872$2,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,108.7413918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf90f…a9e1backed No9c21,375$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,861.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No7c21,359$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.236523.1%15 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No6c20,555$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.4213525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed No7c20,515$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.81827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6635…ecb4backed No6c20,413$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6727…5b6dbacked No1c20,003$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab8…1b4abacked No1c18,534$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed No2c18,209$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.734327.9%12 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db5…f6ddbacked No5c17,049$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No1c12,854$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.0514126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b34…4c88backed No6c10,796$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.36633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+269.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked No6c10,523$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6233023.3%7 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick8cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No1c10,384$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.858655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9f…a025backed No7c10,307$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.891457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+55.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No2c10,159$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.27057.1%40 W · 30 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ae0…b4cebacked No10c10,000$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed No3c10,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-85.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b6…83c8backed No3c9,758$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d13…3c2fbacked No2c9,200$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.79933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked No1c8,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-84.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f14…af60backed No6c7,434$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.35540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No8c7,000$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.8714330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No9c6,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5302744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No2c5,926$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6834354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed No1c5,608$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.912416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed No4c5,401$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.341936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee4a…371cbacked No1c5,276$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+171%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed No0c5,085$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.171020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-63.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked No1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.76742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfacd…9109backed No1c5,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked No6c5,000$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.54431.8%14 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No5c4,653$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.135335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No5c4,518$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.8818628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76a5…2744backed No5c4,182$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9826…e7febacked No5c4,100$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd607…4b09backed No5c3,961$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked No9c3,415$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.545521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1499…6690backed No4c3,370$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked No3c3,279$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9115022.7%34 W · 116 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked No10c3,245$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.261040%4 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+43.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1269…e39ebacked No8c3,200$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed No2c3,173$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.63425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-64.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…ef6abacked No9c3,144$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.16933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No1c3,006$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3428558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed No2c3,002$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.261050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+28%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No6c3,000$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1774540%18 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked No10c3,000$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.641526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed No1c2,935$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3411017.3%19 W · 91 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe99…4b06backed No1c2,727$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8930…9ac8backed No5c2,716$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a77…0b72backed No1c2,650$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.141225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-55.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No2c2,632$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.093531.4%11 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No7c2,522$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1795322.6%12 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c2,520$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1216616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No7c2,500$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.3854934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9d4…e363backed No2c2,488$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No5c2,442$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.476883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No9c2,400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No4c2,385$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.574440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c2,368$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.991,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c68…d23ebacked No5c2,366$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8fe…3ee3backed No5c2,357$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.931020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebae…fb79backed No1c2,326$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked No9c2,222$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.872955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+36.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x73b2…615dbacked No5c2,174$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No2c2,147$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.43933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7959…1af2backed No6c2,138$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…d788backed No1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed No7c2,000$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.417123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8fc…4737backed No1c1,996$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5a2…9981backed No5c1,980$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…9299backed No4c1,905$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No4c1,887$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.727919%15 W · 64 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce08…3010backed No6c1,832$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked No6c1,737$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007027.1%19 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed No6c1,690$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1042227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No2c1,632$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.521435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-46.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d84…2939backed No2c1,603$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2956…d31bbacked No2c1,600$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.82934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9807…6569backed No9c1,584$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501030%3 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+71.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed No5c1,553$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.144940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No2c1,511$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.711723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9372…3b1abacked No6c1,500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+76.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9995…d0d3backed No10c1,463$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.64837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e2…9629backed No3c1,378$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.941625%4 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44f3…975cbacked No2c1,364$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.851030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-48.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.