TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,692,242
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,874,480

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,692,242 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c46…b0a3backed Yes1c245,801$2,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,972.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes2c125,000$2,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,165875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes7c123,107$9,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,074.6513918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes1c102,772$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0743633.3%12 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2967…bd09backed Yes5c99,479$4,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,860.28742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+60.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6867…1da2backed Yes1c88,577$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf661…2259backed Yes1c86,637$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35bf…df94backed Yes2c84,314$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0caf…e7a2backed Yes1c57,416$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes1c50,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick23cpaid+154.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6635…ecb4backed Yes5c48,082$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,424.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes1c47,257$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.145536.4%20 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e2…ea88backed Yes8c46,906$3,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,589.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-36.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes8c46,671$3,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,695.722114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-74%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes7c44,798$2,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,920.517129.6%21 W · 50 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes5c37,500$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0305648.2%27 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6727…5b6dbacked Yes1c36,000$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Yes6c35,964$2,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.441827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cff…45acbacked Yes6c35,500$2,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,157.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae9b…f4bebacked Yes5c33,076$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94c4…cd09backed Yes2c30,892$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes5c29,313$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.285330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54ab…e8f6backed Yes1c28,500$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.811323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+922.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb3…4aacbacked Yes7c27,644$1,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes4c26,202$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.12356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c6…2caabacked Yes7c24,061$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c23,872$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.794440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes5c23,760$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.35812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-76.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes7c22,720$1,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.962152.4%11 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c22,145$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.2614126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed Yes8c21,006$1,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,686.532060%12 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8fe…3ee3backed Yes4c20,783$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.481020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee1…9801backed Yes2c18,955$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.71050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+28%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes0c18,130$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.931020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-63.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes3c17,796$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.881010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-85.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce7…22b0backed Yes2c16,603$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24b2…9670backed Yes8c16,198$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes9c15,068$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.822748.1%13 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4733…22b9backed Yes3c14,896$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e29…21e9backed Yes5c14,491$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab8…1b4abacked Yes4c14,166$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes2c14,008$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.084327.9%12 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Yes8c13,894$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.742544%11 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41a8…92d3backed Yes7c12,951$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes6c12,812$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.226523.1%15 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9764…c131backed Yes2c12,658$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf08e…c7e9backed Yes3c12,656$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…9875backed Yes1c12,382$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab6c…4bb7backed Yes8c12,361$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.8660%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b6…83c8backed Yes5c12,289$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccab…6212backed Yes8c11,744$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes8c11,590$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.55127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca6…75dbbacked Yes1c11,079$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c81…502ebacked Yes0c10,899$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce08…3010backed Yes7c10,890$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f2…e1c1backed Yes7c10,742$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes2c10,096$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.6160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes7c10,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6807650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf584…2497backed Yes7c10,000$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8c…e275backed Yes8c9,667$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.3930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc024…6fd3backed Yes0c9,450$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcc3…f32dbacked Yes7c9,052$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af7…5f54backed Yes2c8,902$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a2…9524backed Yes1c8,675$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a52…788dbacked Yes8c8,563$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe722…73f8backed Yes1c8,423$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb2…56f6backed Yes1c8,332$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16fb…ba62backed Yes1c8,300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x537e…6274backed Yes0c8,206$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e19…669dbacked Yes4c8,198$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.87933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7cbe…43e8backed Yes1c8,052$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x928c…0f9ebacked Yes7c7,833$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes1c7,613$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.17057.1%40 W · 30 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c8b…b92abacked Yes1c7,517$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes8c7,389$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.645740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9c…8361backed Yes1c7,167$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79e…ebf7backed Yes1c7,143$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d67…bbffbacked Yes8c6,784$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c53…bffebacked Yes7c6,675$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf489…5d1abacked Yes8c6,496$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8603…e0c4backed Yes8c6,206$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes8c5,934$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.93812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5db…8409backed Yes2c5,805$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf974…e20bbacked Yes5c5,762$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x328d…f7a9backed Yes6c5,752$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.061266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86fa…cd8ebacked Yes2c5,739$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1080…142abacked Yes2c5,441$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcdb…c4eebacked Yes1c5,410$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes1c5,355$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70e4…9b0bbacked Yes5c5,306$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24fd…1250backed Yes7c5,150$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f2b…665abacked Yes1c5,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa208…aa91backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ed…9a97backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+55%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdb5…e36ebacked Yes7c4,961$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1ec…4f9fbacked Yes4c4,951$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc51…138bbacked Yes1c4,762$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes6c4,688$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaac0…d7a2backed Yes7c4,671$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c9…6e1abacked Yes3c4,652$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.