Commodities · resolved market
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7905865e603b1ca3f443319ecaf13675d8265c299d072c60ac175bcb3758c164
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $349,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $308,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 17c | 71,638$11,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,981.62 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 9c | 27,245$2,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.18 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 11c | 24,926$2,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,738.14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked No | 0c | 11,086$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 5c | 9,547$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 19c | 9,532$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +240.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 7,591$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.03 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 15c | 7,531$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.59 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 9c | 7,000$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 15c | 5,995$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.22 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…10a2backed No | 0c | 5,344$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 3,600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 6c | 3,540$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.12 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 11c | 3,500$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 78c | 3,500$2,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 0c | 3,447$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 10c | 3,012$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked No | 12c | 3,000$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 9c | 2,700$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.65 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed No | 9c | 2,650$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +383.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 16c | 2,541$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.2 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 4c | 1,832$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked No | 19c | 1,594$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…61dcbacked No | 13c | 1,589$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…de26backed Yes | 79c | 1,454$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 13c | 1,442$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 22c | 1,425$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.22 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 10c | 1,351$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.93 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 10c | 1,346$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 13c | 1,338$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 17c | 1,268$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.84 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 7c | 1,226$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…b293backed No | 10c | 1,200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 16c | 1,184$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.26 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked No | 6c | 1,164$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed No | 11c | 1,074$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 1,057$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,050$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 18c | 1,019$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked No | 13c | 1,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +1,917.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…2f60backed No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 7c | 1,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 3c | 909.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 17c | 899.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed No | 19c | 879.93$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.7 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 80c | 843.97$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.41 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x456f…98d5backed No | 16c | 818.44$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…ea26backed Yes | 79c | 806.05$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 80c | 764.99$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed No | 18c | 698.31$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.81 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed No | 16c | 685.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6384backed No | 15c | 678.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 80c | 645.81$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.81 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 10c | 613.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…7dc6backed No | 22c | 600$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 16c | 595.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…361ebacked No | 22c | 500.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 21c | 500$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed No | 20c | 496.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 485.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.26 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c7…04a0backed No | 8c | 464.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked No | 19c | 446.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea2…a4f7backed Yes | 78c | 400.04$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 12c | 395.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 18c | 385.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…c267backed No | 13c | 365.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 9c | 357$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked No | 20c | 350$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…309dbacked Yes | 80c | 344.06$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 12c | 327.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746b…13bebacked No | 7c | 325.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 23c | 319.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…3600backed No | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a025backed No | 9c | 299.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5f62backed No | 8c | 298.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe96d…a747backed No | 6c | 261$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…66b7backed No | 24c | 250.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 7c | 234.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 18c | 227.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…02eabacked No | 5c | 212.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…be57backed No | 5c | 204.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…d3fdbacked No | 17c | 199$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 9c | 193.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5041…619abacked No | 9c | 189.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed No | 16c | 183.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 10c | 172.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f75…0aa7backed No | 17c | 159.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe82f…a089backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 10c | 141.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…f62cbacked No | 18c | 125.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa108…abd3backed Yes | 80c | 125.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…2915backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 80c | 124.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 19c | 121.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…4b7fbacked No | 20c | 120.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8e…9626backed No | 17c | 118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 15c | 112.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +72%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.