Commodities · resolved market
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea70b56a75683f60f13700d1ff677d1c3f29a86153762430f6bb170296066d6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $254,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $241,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 10c | 38,925$3,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,884.52 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9441…98babacked Yes | 20c | 9,904$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 7c | 7,309$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.86 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f44…fa88backed Yes | 40c | 7,032$2,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,791.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 4c | 5,031$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 62c | 4,598$2,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.78 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 4,510$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.6 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 10c | 3,910$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.26 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…66b7backed No | 74c | 3,306$2,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 4c | 3,100$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…4b55backed Yes | 5c | 3,013$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 38c | 3,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Yes | 68c | 2,825$1,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,932.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,820$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.46 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…9048backed Yes | 1c | 2,722$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 16c | 2,395$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.43 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,164$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.16 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.99 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,621$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,601$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d6…2ee9backed No | 34c | 1,474$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…eb14backed Yes | 10c | 1,312$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed Yes | 5c | 1,205$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,199$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.76 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 54c | 1,193$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.28 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,189$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,174$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.51 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 5c | 1,145$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…2f60backed No | 32c | 1,139$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.6 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 9c | 1,055$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,041$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed No | 68c | 970.84$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.83 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 44c | 954.64$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12de…bb0fbacked Yes | 1c | 879.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed No | 75c | 834.78$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 25c | 793.63$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.97 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 781.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 9c | 780.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 39c | 557$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.72 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…8746backed No | 39c | 537.14$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…6b7cbacked No | 47c | 530.05$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 48c | 503.28$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.52 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 53c | 460.48$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 6c | 459$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 38c | 438.56$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.77 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…bec0backed Yes | 16c | 423.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 12c | 400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 43c | 398.36$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.89 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 6c | 365.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…f7a9backed Yes | 38c | 362.96$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 41c | 355.82$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.41 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 345.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 46c | 324.67$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 3c | 321.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 9c | 313.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 4c | 283.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6da…3699backed Yes | 23c | 261.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 14c | 259.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 252.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 9c | 251.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 226.84$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…d92dbacked No | 63c | 213.87$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…a183backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…752abacked Yes | 69c | 197.83$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef5…343ebacked No | 77c | 191.15$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 30c | 183.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed No | 57c | 181.18$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 14c | 179.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 8c | 178.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes | 43c | 171.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…fde1backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes | 16c | 160.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…525fbacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…144bbacked No | 64c | 155.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +185%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe69c…e14cbacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Yes | 20c | 141.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb2…cb9abacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 54cpaid | +195.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…0e9fbacked No | 40c | 124.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 64c | 123.43$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 29c | 120$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…8f04backed Yes | 40c | 118.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 64c | 117.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…a292backed No | 46c | 108.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 64c | 105.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…3435backed Yes | 16c | 104.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f5…c651backed Yes | 12c | 103.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…51b4backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…cc22backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b2…8974backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…fa58backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 76c | 98.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.