Weather · resolved market
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 3 of the 2026 flu season be between 50 and 60?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d16cc6bfc59787a24d6ea41cc49ad03f3a3a44e97aad02d7300cf906c812e53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 2c | 1,388$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…90c0backed No | 56c | 1,300$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac7…689dbacked Yes | 44c | 1,300$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…dae1backed No | 9c | 960$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…41f6backed No | 9c | 873$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 9c | 815$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed No | 9c | 675$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked No | 9c | 638$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed No | 9c | 553$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked No | 9c | 382$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…b9c9backed Yes | 56c | 359.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed No | 9c | 298$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked No | 9c | 289$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdece…08dbbacked No | 9c | 211$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 187.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed No | 9c | 184$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 9c | 137$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 89.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6886…3611backed Yes | 37c | 40.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…df87backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 3 of the 2026 flu season be between 50 and 60?this page
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 3 of the 2026 flu season be between 30 and 40?No won
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 3 of the 2026 flu season be between 40 and 50?No won
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 3 of the 2026 flu season be between 60 and 70?No won
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 3 of the 2026 flu season be less than 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.