Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa69521c354a29667d0280a514cb50660cce738d09acb800d086e99aebfab1928
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,352 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 2c | 4,873$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,636$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,356$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,143$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ab…e99cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,013$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.36 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 1,703$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.49 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 4c | 1,488$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 1,079$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 4c | 939.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 9c | 923.58$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 4c | 800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 13c | 749.65$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 4c | 707.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 14c | 704$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 700.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…6a28backed Yes | 3c | 563.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…0a5cbacked Yes | 6c | 546.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 9c | 486.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 2c | 449$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f83…0e8dbacked Yes | 3c | 438.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 4c | 410.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af8…b069backed Yes | 3c | 400.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Yes | 3c | 398.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 12c | 331.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 123 | 8.9%11 W · 112 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 329.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…5323backed Yes | 22c | 317.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f7…4edbbacked Yes | 16c | 303.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 4c | 295.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…4b55backed Yes | 23c | 276.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb764…51ddbacked No | 76c | 262.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes | 8c | 260.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 229.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…7f72backed Yes | 23c | 221.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cd…17acbacked Yes | 25c | 213.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c01…0436backed Yes | 7c | 202.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 63 | 81%51 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 75cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 12c | 191.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…0ae9backed Yes | 18c | 163.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 160.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 14c | 143.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 8c | 137.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 154 | 30.5%47 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 12c | 115.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed Yes | 15c | 113$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…6883backed Yes | 22c | 95.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…16c9backed Yes | 23c | 51.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 76c | 22.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.