TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,589

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,589 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes20c3,026$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.4163414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes5c1,991$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.895535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes2c1,528$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9466222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes1c1,100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.125617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83e9…cfb0backed Yes36c1,058$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.433644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed Yes36c999.98$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.991225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes18c920.02$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.746216.1%10 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-66.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes20c915.57$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.1315819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes18c806.07$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.4624732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes24c789.39$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2811421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes14c789.14$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030714%43 W · 264 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed Yes20c587.62$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.532339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes16c564.23$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9215430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes10c479.32$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.241216.6%8 W · 113 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No74c436.11$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.6219550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No71c397.04$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.9831565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c392.64$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0479735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes21c388$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4376821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes25c376.52$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5352619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes30c370.7$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11241718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecd7…c7e1backed Yes15c327$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes23c326.69$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2850828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.64839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes13c298.68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes18c279.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1137…978dbacked Yes38c264.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2410032%32 W · 68 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes20c252.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508918%16 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes8c249.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5759…2d3fbacked Yes37c237.02$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.61837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes27c235.35$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3737830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes7c231.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.171,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x440a…0ae9backed Yes16c222.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.652520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446381%51 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick75cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc219…04fabacked No74c184.12$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.542653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f1…25f6backed Yes22c183.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+90.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No79c170.66$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.926167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771c…81ebbacked Yes12c163.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e50…98f0backed Yes35c143.49$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.733027.9%92 W · 238 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c143.37$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7851845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No76c142.71$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.083971.8%28 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf95d…e957backed Yes22c141.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes23c140.76$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.489616.7%16 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd897…9b49backed No64c138.32$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.526157.4%35 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x789d…d3bbbacked Yes37c133.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfac2…6d07backed Yes23c129.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.253010%3 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes17c127.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2425127.1%68 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e64…b5d2backed Yes28c127.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No71c125.38$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.323770.3%26 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1003…7a79backed Yes32c122.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.571225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes18c116.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.162,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes22c116.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5427920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x662b…eb47backed Yes29c115.51$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.231030%3 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-59.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc3b6…59aebacked Yes14c106$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes36c106$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1650319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a2f…c1c9backed Yes14c105$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b03…b766backed Yes38c100.44$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810623.6%25 W · 81 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.918224.2%44 W · 138 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8ad…411abacked Yes20c99.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes21c96.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4643933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15d1…0587backed Yes37c96.25$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5545…8371backed Yes21c95.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4de5…225ebacked Yes26c94.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+42.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5bc…10adbacked Yes18c93.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.551020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-27.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed Yes39c92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7719527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3af…a5cfbacked Yes14c90.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31f9…1886backed Yes40c82.92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1111…624fbacked Yes34c81.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d05…864cbacked Yes31c80.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes18c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.47326%19 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes28c76.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3299619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x596d…1aadbacked Yes16c70.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00b3…0991backed Yes17c70.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.743119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-2.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x895d…9cb0backed Yes29c69.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes20c69.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1720532.7%67 W · 138 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No73c68.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.641877.8%14 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes37c66.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510024%24 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f59…3637backed No66c65.24$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.071145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5df…307dbacked Yes38c65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.382832.1%9 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked No74c64.03$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.594055%22 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f2…3ca1backed Yes34c59.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead9…27d2backed Yes27c58.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes30c55.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc9e…6693backed Yes21c52.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116631.8%21 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes20c50.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12110%0 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No77c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.552748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ee…f6f9backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945c…9721backed Yes38c48.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+61.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb37…6883backed Yes38c48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.315735.1%20 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No75c46.6$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.522420.8%5 W · 19 L-7.3wins-0.30per pick51cpaid-66.3%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x50fa…11babacked Yes29c46.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.44540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9af8…b069backed Yes25c44.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No76c32.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9223464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No76c32.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7559225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No79c30.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4922770.9%161 W · 66 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No77c28.25$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.624932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x7ddf…4479backed Yes38c27.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035b…3ca0backed No77c23.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.421233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+58%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd01…cec7backed No68c21.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+83.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4650…8be6backed No76c15.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.