TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,431

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,431 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd83…e1cebacked Yes3c9,086$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes21c5,084$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.95535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.225617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes10c2,461$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.7163414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes21c1,383$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.692,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes56c1,145$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63812232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes27c1,046$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.436216.1%10 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-66.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes32c1,000$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.642628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ebb…0614backed Yes49c843.67$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes17c789.39$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1111421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes39c741.19$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8552619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x15d1…0587backed Yes19c620.98$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes3c585.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1713119.1%25 W · 106 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes6c538.03$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6911418.4%21 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes5c509.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.961,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ab…e293backed No65c464.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.67771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes33c445.34$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2715430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5531…c4cebacked Yes3c441.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed Yes32c422.46$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.082339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffa0…c4f4backed Yes49c399.99$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7f59…3637backed Yes33c387.36$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.211145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes22c379.88$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0276821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e9…cfb0backed Yes46c375.31$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.973644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Yes49c349.01$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.493836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed Yes47c341.7$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.24728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb08b…4b55backed Yes18c334.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No54c330.49$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.3631565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes34c326.69$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6650828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No35c308.77$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.712528%35 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No46c300.99$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.7237830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9349…0486backed Yes45c295.65$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.981533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes49c292.96$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0210727.1%29 W · 78 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes8c292.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7224710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed No69c276.8$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.022751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9454…7f72backed Yes56c271.43$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.161127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes55c264.8$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.1362539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed No51c259.73$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8327920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f6f…ece6backed No80c248.81$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.55580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes29c235.45$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1424932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed Yes41c234.06$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.91250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed No28c230$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.484920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes22c225.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.797915.2%12 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes47c224.64$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6926…1336backed Yes46c217.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No51c215.6$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.414429.5%13 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c1…7c0dbacked No54c201.82$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d05…864cbacked Yes61c200.4$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.351926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes73c200$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.14839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446381%51 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick75cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No49c199.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.623464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes48c198.52$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8243933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes62c195.46$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6910335.9%37 W · 66 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+108%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked No55c180$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.64742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes32c178.4$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2750319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes25c178.15$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4441718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes11c174.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.31639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No55c159$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.232748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes38c158.19$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.471127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-55.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc89b…b7c8backed Yes45c156$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x912b…9156backed No41c155.41$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.262100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes30c151.73$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4534127.3%93 W · 248 L+1.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes52c150$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2518224.2%44 W · 138 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cf0…34b8backed Yes73c150$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed No57c149.43$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.81850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0afd…b9c9backed No73c148.48$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.432462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1137…978dbacked Yes70c143.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0110032%32 W · 68 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8317…18e3backed No43c138.59$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5545…8371backed Yes34c137.34$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.58920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes16c126.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013718.2%25 W · 112 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5afe…6d5abacked Yes51c120$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes70c117.22$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.242119%4 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-54.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b03…b766backed Yes22c116.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510623.6%25 W · 81 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6709…af18backed Yes57c114.35$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.523231.3%10 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b3e…4163backed No59c113.42$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x440a…0ae9backed Yes27c111.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c100.2$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7851845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.23770.3%26 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.31968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+76.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xf082…7239backed Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bfd…db32backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.910834.3%37 W · 71 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes15c99.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.457326%19 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No54c94.33$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5126167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfac2…6d07backed Yes26c91.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.23010%3 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1111…624fbacked Yes55c91.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7f…66f4backed Yes46c90.52$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e4…b606backed No54c90$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcab0…68febacked No55c89.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes52c86.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked No50c79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.661238.9%11 W · 112 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes62c78.38$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9cc…6f12backed No55c76.9$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Yes55c72.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.961330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes31c65.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2043027%116 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked No76c64.38$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.468918%16 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No71c63.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1819550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5df…307dbacked Yes43c61.69$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.392832.1%9 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x091f…672ebacked Yes23c61.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21225%3 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-65%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2cd9…c2e2backed No55c60.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f2…3ca1backed No55c60.55$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.251136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.