TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,650

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,650 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes13c2,435$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.8363414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes24c1,260$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.7415819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c1,247$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.752,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd16…649cbacked No4c1,184$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No73c1,059$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.4931565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes17c979.74$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.6324732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes47c962.46$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.6919550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed Yes76c932.31$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.322339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes53c789.39$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.1311421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes38c656.95$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.1737830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes16c654.54$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.4665623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes17c501.39$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.3930714%43 W · 264 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86f7…4edbbacked Yes21c474.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.562512%3 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+83.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No8c468.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.831216.6%8 W · 113 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1137…978dbacked Yes44c468.14$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.8610032%32 W · 68 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes15c465.11$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.1141718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6709…af18backed Yes14c464.81$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.183231.3%10 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb26…4edfbacked No4c403.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.821723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes13c398.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.2124114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes46c388$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.8676821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes20c375.77$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.856216.1%10 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-66.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes57c373.15$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9699619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e50…98f0backed Yes15c372.04$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.533027.9%92 W · 238 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes23c345.65$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.658918%16 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes13c343.46$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.27639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes39c326.69$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.750828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbce…fcccbacked No50c301.5$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.31735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes39c300.45$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.9527920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c299.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.691,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes31c293.71$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.0815430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed Yes14c284.71$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.8219527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb41…0a5cbacked Yes17c259.73$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.17757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+65.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c253.13$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.532,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes13c253.01$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.3110024%24 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7400…031cbacked Yes77c245.34$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.41922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-70.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f1…25f6backed Yes17c241.27$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.27757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+90.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes55c225.54$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2452619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcb37…6883backed Yes38c224.69$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.055735.1%20 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes9c220.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.434165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9cd…17acbacked Yes47c213.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.873935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c0…38acbacked Yes17c200.29$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.98837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No78c199.99$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.996381%51 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick75cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes8c193.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.08932.2%2 W · 91 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-67.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No40c189.97$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.04540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89e1…5323backed Yes28c185.79$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.674820.8%10 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes17c185.48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.558915.7%14 W · 75 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x440a…0ae9backed Yes18c177.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.672520%5 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes10c175.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.681,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes15c175.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.699616.7%16 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed Yes19c172.57$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.982751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1907…8174backed Yes58c171.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.35129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-8.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No6c162.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3543933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9454…7f72backed Yes33c150.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.751127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked No73c150$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.479733%32 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x789d…d3bbbacked Yes34c147.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.552128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9e…6693backed Yes50c147.29$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.656631.8%21 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes16c144.76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.9411725.6%30 W · 87 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x00b3…0991backed Yes8c138$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.13119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-2.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed Yes16c130.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.46633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+26.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9af8…b069backed Yes18c122.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.313525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No67c121.01$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7226167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0afd…b9c9backed Yes78c120.71$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.312462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes15c120.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.477326%19 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…340ebacked No16c109$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No79c106.86$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0324932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6c01…0436backed Yes19c105.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.56825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c28…4e7dbacked Yes44c101.68$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.132236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.74839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac2…6d07backed Yes19c98.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.543010%3 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c93.01$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6479735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f2…3ca1backed Yes35c92.73$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.091136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x662b…eb47backed No66c89.46$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.821030%3 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-59.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbed0…29bcbacked No18c85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc820…6a28backed Yes17c83.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.611020%2 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes17c83.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3733415.6%52 W · 282 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc79f…e3febacked Yes13c82.76$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.08540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+80.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ee…2909backed Yes31c81.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+63.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes40c78.41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.74450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No58c75.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.353770.3%26 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No50c72.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.583268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No68c70.69$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.722420.8%5 W · 19 L-7.3wins-0.30per pick51cpaid-66.3%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes33c70$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0420532.7%67 W · 138 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5545…8371backed Yes31c63.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.828920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No63c55.72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.992532%8 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid+34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No52c51.73$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9523541.3%97 W · 138 L-29.2wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-35.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.91330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes57c48.54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.652035%7 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945c…9721backed Yes33c48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.19742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+61.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No62c47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.931877.8%14 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50fa…11babacked Yes48c45.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd1f…8191backed Yes34c42.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x624e…a482backed Yes60c41.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.394928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No57c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.93354.5%18 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4218…ff0ebacked No47c34.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df0…9a01backed No70c32.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0a6…0f3abacked Yes54c31.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No80c30.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3822770.9%161 W · 66 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…6382backed No50c30.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf689…14eebacked No51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.