World Politics · resolved market
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8abe0a4c0a6e69d5bded5cf336a9db47edc6b67bcc00f97339c001530105cc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 19c | 2,883$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.47 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 71c | 1,382$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 29c | 1,154$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 29c | 1,106$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked No | 71c | 1,009$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 29c | 997$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked No | 71c | 994$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 71c | 985$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.35 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 6c | 977.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed Yes | 29c | 952$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 29c | 886$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 71c | 856$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 46c | 599.21$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.39 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed Yes | 29c | 559$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 74c | 553.88$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.18 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 71c | 541$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed No | 71c | 538$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 29c | 520$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…679ebacked Yes | 24c | 424.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.09 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 69c | 421.91$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 27c | 366.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.32 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…5ac5backed Yes | 26c | 366.06$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 55c | 287.79$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.22 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…c518backed Yes | 26c | 261.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.71 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 257.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 27c | 239$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.47 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 231.18$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 210.23$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.19 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 23c | 201.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.51 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 32c | 193.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.93 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…baafbacked Yes | 27c | 184.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 180.86$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked No | 64c | 145.04$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed Yes | 29c | 131$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 126$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.02 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8eb…55c4backed Yes | 30c | 100.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +46%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe236…cfcdbacked Yes | 28c | 72.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 26c | 71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4d…2173backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc3…01f3backed Yes | 30c | 57.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 53.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 22c | 50.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…9332backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…287cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…cde4backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…1263backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf42…2448backed Yes | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…33e2backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x83c6…08b3backed Yes | 75c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 79c | 18.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…99f9backed No | 71c | 15.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…52d1backed No | 79c | 12.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?this page
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 44-48% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 48%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win <36% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.