TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,479
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,246

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,479 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x629b…995abacked Yes8c7,777$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.1643243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac7…aabbbacked Yes2c3,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes4c2,500$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4928430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes15c1,600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24011349.6%56 W · 57 L+28.4wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+106.5%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xda7f…2425backed Yes23c1,270$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.591816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes32c1,001$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.198640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes24c859$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.161050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ab…434bbacked No76c859$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes6c799.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.55022%11 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes6c699.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x649f…112dbacked Yes2c598.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes17c423.52$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724542.2%19 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked Yes15c319.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.155135.3%18 W · 33 L+12.4wins+0.24per pick11cpaid+385.3%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes25c314.92$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.779123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69c9…3b29backed No65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.692958.6%17 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf24f…cfb7backed Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452722.2%6 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+152.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe759…e7cabacked Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216759.7%40 W · 27 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes34c299.98$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9954934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes36c275.3$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1115932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7d…441ebacked Yes37c270$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f8f…96b7backed Yes37c270$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb29…bf0dbacked Yes37c270$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6d…bd44backed Yes37c270$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x150b…ad7ebacked Yes37c270$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes6c265.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3544428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xb192…4f37backed Yes38c263$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a63…d247backed Yes38c263$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3512…2ffdbacked Yes38c263$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a67…1958backed Yes38c263$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d44…affcbacked Yes38c263$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1684…154ebacked Yes38c263$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed Yes16c257.14$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.142133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes8c255$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910151.5%52 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a0…2723backed Yes28c251.68$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.46540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6594…e2c7backed Yes37c230$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes33c202.27$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.476426.6%17 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b69…42cfbacked Yes32c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-44.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes22c193.28$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.28129.6%24 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-44.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No62c186$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6815650%78 W · 78 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes35c166.34$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4346330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8510…67acbacked No62c161$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd772…4c82backed No62c161$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x077f…6e02backed No62c161$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecf…0ebbbacked No62c161$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd3…441abacked No62c161$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c4…f943backed No62c161$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x681a…162bbacked No62c161$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3e4…2d78backed No62c161$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8177…f6c2backed No62c161$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf42…2448backed Yes32c158.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.481163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb827…1ff1backed No63c158$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca54…6646backed No63c158$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87db…f278backed No63c158$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1918…353cbacked No63c158$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e8…5ce8backed No63c158$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e2…0cb4backed No63c158$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb0…9cebbacked No63c158$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa808…be34backed No63c158$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4605…9700backed No63c158$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc117…9f3abacked No63c158$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe77b…baafbacked Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0e3…6677backed Yes15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.53429.4%10 W · 24 L+6.1wins+0.18per pick12cpaid+167.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155054%27 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked No64c148$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.281127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-59.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4541…30d3backed Yes14c138$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes14c137.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5945723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x293b…2830backed No62c129$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c123.68$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.841,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5861…d9a6backed Yes15c120.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7440%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes36c110$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.63951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12fe…16b1backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b40…e937backed Yes24c82.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.613644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No61c81.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.968552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a98…9c69backed Yes14c77.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.861136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No67c74.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4732255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.327438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed No64c68.81$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9619623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes33c65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.453743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60e4…f926backed Yes33c63.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.021233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcecd…c518backed Yes42c55.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.412835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes30c54.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4334726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ab2…b321backed No70c52.13$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.64650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc1…9c55backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.550%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3ad…6866backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…cde4backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd691…24adbacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes37c45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.654641.3%19 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes36c42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.127951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes35c41.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.698142%34 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8420051.5%103 W · 97 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes38c39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.821637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes29c37.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.988448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c36.48$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3815356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No63c32.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.197761%47 W · 30 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b5e…332ebacked No65c32.15$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Yes35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-38.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5cc…9332backed No62c29.69$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.28850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes37c28.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7218246.2%84 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed No60c28.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.234663%29 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.