World Politics · resolved market
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 44-48% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x216da290ea27fad4c1f50ea01793611c547bbfaf388dac82d1f4e645ca3b6ea7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d02…9489backed Yes | 20c | 1,970$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 15c | 977.62$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.93 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 15c | 776$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 14c | 544$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 14c | 522$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes | 14c | 480$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 15c | 290$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 15c | 276$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…c3cabacked Yes | 16c | 222.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 18c | 203.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 17c | 193.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8eb…55c4backed Yes | 19c | 156.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9b…9248backed Yes | 22c | 153.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 92.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 80c | 82.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 77cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…baafbacked Yes | 30c | 67.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 56.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 23c | 44.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 35.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 79c | 26.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed No | 78c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 44-48% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?this page
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 48%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win <36% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.