World Politics · resolved market
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <36% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33f542bf6dcc1ee06d01baf47df5dc5ccc9b0d7949a5c0e12173beceb9c15d9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5942…a678backed Yes | 18c | 6,998$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.15 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed Yes | 12c | 2,080$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…1f98backed Yes | 18c | 1,757$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 75c | 1,488$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 24c | 1,247$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.16 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 18c | 954$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 14c | 900$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…a3c6backed Yes | 20c | 808.5$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…e937backed Yes | 20c | 771.53$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 726.74$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed Yes | 14c | 532$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 20c | 507.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 14c | 488$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…5587backed Yes | 23c | 430.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8e…7666backed Yes | 19c | 322.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…fe19backed No | 75c | 320.2$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 14c | 313.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 17c | 250$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 14c | 245.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 15c | 203.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 20c | 193.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 18c | 162.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df8…6dd8backed Yes | 21c | 155.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 12c | 138.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 17c | 112$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked Yes | 21c | 92.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 89.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 16c | 69.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 77c | 64.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 18c | 60.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 79c | 20.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 75c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win <36% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?this page
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 44-48% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 48%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.