Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Valerie Foushee be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38239421519e1034b5cc2bd08737cdc91f39fd7bb250d585862ddac8299d21df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,134 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 23c | 999.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 41c | 962$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…99aebacked Yes | 35c | 890$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed No | 59c | 792$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 74c | 631$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…ca4fbacked Yes | 26c | 545$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 65c | 481$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 18c | 478.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 64c | 472.14$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.93 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 31c | 428.64$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.57 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 26c | 420$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…99aabacked No | 74c | 356$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 33c | 314.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.28 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked No | 65c | 312$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 77c | 280$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 77c | 277.92$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 35c | 266$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 65c | 266$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 55c | 206.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.89 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 77c | 186.59$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked No | 74c | 177$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 26c | 138$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed No | 59c | 136$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 62c | 106.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 74c | 105.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed Yes | 21c | 99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ff…2f6abacked Yes | 46c | 87.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc911…fa2bbacked No | 79c | 86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 45c | 85.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 75.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb750…90bcbacked Yes | 77c | 64.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 76c | 62.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 76c | 60.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3c…3ebcbacked Yes | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 54c | 47.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 38.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e6…90f4backed Yes | 77c | 37.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 64c | 37.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 38c | 30.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874f…0441backed Yes | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 19.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…6741backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Valerie Foushee be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?this page
- Will Mary Patterson be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?No won
- Will Nida Allam be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.