Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Nida Allam be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x633b42ce6f9334eb97f975cc047177184f628a128edc84b2fe369b852458fec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,125 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a17…1b84backed Yes | 65c | 1,239$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed No | 38c | 1,227$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 37c | 954$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes | 63c | 950$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 39c | 929$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 44c | 881.39$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.76 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 36c | 577.49$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.71 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed Yes | 61c | 576$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 71c | 534$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +99%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed No | 47c | 477$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…b42bbacked Yes | 53c | 477$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 32c | 464.7$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.8 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 64c | 408.44$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.61 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 29c | 399$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked Yes | 71c | 399$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 37c | 394$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked Yes | 63c | 394$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 61c | 392$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed No | 29c | 369.53$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 43c | 367.95$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.92 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked No | 66c | 304.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 296.8$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.95 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 46c | 259.25$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 58c | 249.76$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.11 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874f…0441backed Yes | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 103.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed Yes | 62c | 90.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 26c | 86.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6197…20b0backed Yes | 69c | 72.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 64c | 69.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 36c | 52.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 31c | 51.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked No | 38c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Yes | 59c | 43.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 31c | 40.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 39.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked No | 39c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576a…bdd9backed Yes | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes | 68c | 30.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…58c7backed Yes | 73c | 29.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 42c | 29.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Yes | 37c | 27.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 69c | 26.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd409…062fbacked Yes | 69c | 26.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…9f91backed No | 58c | 22.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed No | 65c | 21.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…2157backed Yes | 69c | 15.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nida Allam be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?this page
- Will Mary Patterson be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?No won
- Will Valerie Foushee be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.