Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Donald Trump make no endorsement or endorse someone other than Ken Paxton, John Cornyn, or Wesley Hunt for the Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75ab390f9e1b64bcd46f48a5201b2b7089972c380b06aed5f8c81013108eed2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 8c | 5,013$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.71 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 31c | 1,006$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked No | 59c | 704.32$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes | 69c | 545$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 54c | 536.36$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 30c | 527$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 70c | 527$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 42c | 469.6$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.83 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 29c | 318.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.48 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 66c | 313$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed No | 34c | 313$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed No | 49c | 291$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 51c | 291$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 37cpaid | +225.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked Yes | 69c | 287$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 29c | 254.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 20c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 24c | 193.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked Yes | 69c | 174$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 49c | 172.34$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 30c | 128.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.02 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +9.0wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed Yes | 56c | 128$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…0f0fbacked No | 44c | 128$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 50c | 109$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 19c | 86.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 56c | 78.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 76.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed Yes | 80c | 73.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 30c | 63.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 36c | 58.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 32c | 54.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 46c | 25.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 72c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump make no endorsement or endorse someone other than Ken Paxton, John Cornyn, or Wesley Hunt for the Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump endorse John Cornyn for the Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump endorse Ken Paxton for the Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump endorse Wesley Hunt for the Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.