Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Donald Trump endorse Ken Paxton for the Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb068a12d598a0d7633cb6080bd7b2b3bcc30bd173e39f87059abfef74bfb14c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed No | 68c | 837$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed No | 78c | 679$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Yes | 13c | 676$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +126%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed No | 78c | 549$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 32c | 496$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 22c | 483$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 13c | 430$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 21c | 410$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed Yes | 22c | 399$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 78c | 399$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 22c | 339$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 21c | 270.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 22c | 256$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 5c | 247.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed Yes | 13c | 207$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 6c | 179.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes | 20c | 84.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 82.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 47.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…ab2abacked Yes | 59c | 33.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 68c | 14.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump endorse Ken Paxton for the Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump endorse John Cornyn for the Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump endorse Wesley Hunt for the Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump make no endorsement or endorse someone other than Ken Paxton, John Cornyn, or Wesley Hunt for the Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.