TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,463
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,402

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,463 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbe78…c533backed Yes74c7,724$5,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.0629735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes72c6,039$4,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.9618746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes77c5,028$3,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.332739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes53c4,210$2,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.9113635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes78c4,181$3,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.6729642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c1,684$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.285311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes45c1,662$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.5728524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0359…4fc7backed No43c1,472$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x148e…9a62backed Yes57c1,472$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked No34c1,180$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.6719532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No30c1,141$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.12555.5%3 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bde…c82fbacked No14c1,031$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-75%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cfe…1afcbacked Yes73c920.35$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.461258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes65c844.99$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.623321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x934b…b9c1backed No50c815.08$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc503…f8edbacked Yes50c815.08$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes44c748.24$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.6126431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No27c671$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.873721.6%8 W · 29 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-69.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed No18c617$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.443432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No52c609.27$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.9516741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7155…d866backed No18c609$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+49.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x374b…9a1fbacked No18c607$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.65633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed No25c595.63$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4312030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes71c549.95$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.486150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No5c523$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.892686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e39…8e7abacked Yes38c505.81$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.72955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes57c493.77$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.4911633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes42c469.37$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.9719133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No16c465.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.64355.7%2 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No42c450.16$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.068351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x681b…8a5abacked No20c443.21$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.93339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked No18c439.21$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed No40c435.94$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2932814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed No41c431$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.774938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes59c416.12$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.3114530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No56c386.08$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.065757.9%33 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No58c376.83$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.238752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2384…e4d5backed Yes48c340.89$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.891637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No15c324.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3411924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dee…f426backed No20c276.58$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.26119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-88%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes75c263.84$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9810139.6%40 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2301…7fa8backed Yes48c247.23$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.923540%14 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae7…3e12backed No19c238.97$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.275151%26 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.18per pick33cpaid+155.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked No29c224.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610814.8%16 W · 92 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab18…467dbacked No51c224.7$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.253423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-42.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3106…23a8backed No7c220.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.62742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes70c219.53$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1713735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.62781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed No16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d5…726dbacked No40c167.37$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.441618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-47%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No30c166.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No14c155.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.691,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19db…7636backed Yes77c153.81$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.745646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked No36c138$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.66520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6469…c029backed Yes50c130$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes23c128.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9615054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x37fc…7717backed No57c122.81$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702825%7 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No31c119.34$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.998332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No40c118$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.416015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No27c112$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3420850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc6a…151fbacked No25c110$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x978f…643fbacked No29c104.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No27c104.28$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5519240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked No68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb557…ef84backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe291…9806backed No60c98.48$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27bf…7a6bbacked Yes52c81.77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes50c80.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf25…636dbacked No56c79.36$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93e2…92b9backed No17c73.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8590%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes59c71.01$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.831968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No54c68.32$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.053461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No51c67.43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3916453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb51…f32cbacked No32c61.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.574425%11 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed No48c61.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a05…8573backed No42c60.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.31757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No51c59.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.481637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8fb…72cdbacked No52c59.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.564934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No51c59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.091457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes49c59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.091764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+85.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No55c56.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.996917.4%12 W · 57 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No52c53.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.82933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No68c51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.682437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes32c51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.681258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6dd…c6b6backed Yes72c49.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.925100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…5abebacked Yes75c49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5414…7fbebacked Yes75c46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e62…64a7backed Yes47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.551060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc560…adbabacked Yes78c40.82$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc822…c156backed Yes75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1000…b7b4backed No39c38.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x840a…7ababacked Yes80c37.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.583100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes55c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6310544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x281f…f53cbacked Yes75c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes65c34.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.068461.9%52 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes43c33.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.911825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked No57c31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.673844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6a…a71dbacked Yes47c29.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.792832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.